Nobody outside Starkville expects much from Mississippi State Saturday night in Austin. A team that just lost its star quarterback for the season is heading into Austin to face a top-15 opponent on Halloween night, and the predictions practically write themselves.

Oddly enough, that is when bold predictions get the most fun. Here are three for the Bulldogs’ Halloween trip to Texas.

Prediction 1: Quarterback AJ Swann leads a scoring drive in his debut

Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby is keeping his starter a secret until game night, and he sounded pleased with both options Wednesday.

“Both of those guys, they’ve had a really good start to the week,” Lebby said. “They’ve got to continue that as we really dial in on a game plan, and I get ready to go call the game for whoever it is that’s going to start.”

Here’s the thing. Quarterback Billy Puckett has completed 41 of 64 passes for 368 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions across four games, which is steady without being explosive. Swann has not taken a snap this season, yet he arrives with 18 career starts and threw for 1,495 yards and 10 touchdowns at Appalachian State last fall.

Expect Swann to get his shot at some point Saturday, and expect him to lead the Bulldogs to points on at least one drive. A veteran who has started games in the SEC is too intriguing to leave on the sideline in a game like this. His experience gives Mississippi State another option, but the first step is getting the offense through a drive without a costly mistake.

Prediction 2: Texas commits 10 or more penalties

Texas found a way past Ole Miss last week, but the Longhorns made it far harder than it needed to be. They were flagged 14 times for 134 yards, and several of those were avoidable personal fouls.

Steve Sarkisian knew it too. “We had an opportunity to be closer to perfect,” the Texas coach said after the win.

Mind you, sloppy habits rarely vanish in one week, especially for a team playing its fourth straight SEC game. Double-digit flags would hand Mississippi State free yards, and a quarterback making his first or second start this season needs every one of them.

Prediction 3: Mississippi State is within one score entering the fourth quarter

Texas has made a habit of living dangerously. The Longhorns needed a stop on a final-play pass to beat Tennessee 20-17, then watched Ole Miss recover an onside kick in the final two minutes last week before a last-play interception sealed it.

Better yet for the Bulldogs, they have done this to Texas before. Mississippi State built a 17-point lead in Starkville last October before the Longhorns scored 24 unanswered points and escaped 45-38 in overtime.

Holding the line for four quarters is a big ask with a backup quarterback. 

All the same, a one-score game heading into the final 15 minutes is well within reach if the Bulldogs protect the ball and let Texas beat itself with flags.