With a looming lockout, this offseason is bound to be complicated, but the St. Louis Cardinals can still improve their roster through free agency for now.

The Cardinals defied expectations this year, staying in the playoff race for most of the year despite being in the middle of a rebuild, but they still have a few clear needs to address this offseason. On offense, St. Louis still has a question mark at third base, though the team has some young options who could compete for the position. More importantly, the Cardinals need to improve their pitching staff, both in the bullpen and starting rotation.

It would be surprising to see St. Louis give up top prospects in a trade this offseason, so signing a pitcher in free agency is more likely. The Cardinals have already been linked to multiple free-agent pitchers, including Trevor Rogers, but Bleacher Report's Zachary Rymer warned teams to beware of pursuing the former All-Star.

Pursuing Rogers would be a mistake for the Cardinals

"A 2.64 ERA over 25 starts made Trevor Rogers an All-Star and Rookie of the Year contender in 2021," Rymer wrote on Saturday. "In 2025, he made 18 starts and pitched to a 1.81 ERA. This year, he had a 6.84 ERA at the end of May before ripping off a 2.90 ERA in his last 20 starts. There's a difference between a good run and a good season, however, and Rogers has yet to prove he can handle the latter. That is, at least if you consider a good season from a starter to consist of 30-plus starts' worth of consistency.

"Even setting aside the inconsistency, though, there's still a broader lack of swing-and-miss stuff (46th percentile Whiff% this year) and one heck of a platoon disadvantage. Righties had a .759 OPS against Rogers this year, compared to a .515 OPS for lefties. Normally, a good changeup can solve a problem like that. But the change is already Rogers' primary offering, and righties hit .338 with a .303 xBA against it this season. Per its -11 Run Value, it was the worst changeup in baseball."

After a slow start this year, Rogers finished the season with a 10-11 record, 4.03 ERA and 157 strikeouts across 30 starts. Though he's a solid pitcher who could lead the Cardinals' starting rotation, Rogers is projected to sign a multi-year contract worth roughly $26 million a year, according to Spotrac, which could exceed $100 million in total value.

St. Louis is still in the middle of a rebuild, so spending over $100 million on a pitcher when the team isn't ready to compete for a championship doesn't make much sense. In addition, the Baltimore Orioles extended Rogers a qualifying offer, so if a team like the Cardinals wanted to sign him, they'd have to give up a valuable draft pick.

The Cardinals should try to acquire another quality pitcher for their starting rotation this offseason, but Rogers seems like a reach.