Chelsea supporters have reason to feel optimistic again after watching their team beat Manchester United 2-0 last weekend. The Blues had endured a difficult week with defeats to Tottenham and Liverpool, but Sunday’s trip to Sunderland looks like a golden opportunity to build momentum.

Sunderland are bottom of the Premier League, struggling for goals and conceding regularly, while Chelsea sit fourth. However, the Black Cats’ underlying numbers suggest this could be a much tougher fixture than most fans expect.

Chelsea fans’ confidence ahead of Sunderland game comes with a major warning sign

Sunderland have had a miserable start to the 2026/27 season, with just one win and five points from their first nine Premier League games. They have scored only five goals and conceded 17, leaving them with the second-worst goal difference (-10) in the league.

Defeats to Frank Lampard’s Coventry City and Dinamo Zagreb have only added to the Black Cats’ problems. Regis Le Bris’ side lost 3-1 at home to Coventry last weekend before suffering a 2-0 Europa League defeat on Thursday, meaning fatigue could also be a factor against Chelsea.

Featured comment

nenychux504

It’s a Chelsea win to the international break. Chelsea 2 v Sunderland 0

Join the conversation →

Featured comment

alcosolomon

I have seen what teams at the bottom relegation zone have surprisingly done to Chelsea in the past. I hope not this time again.

Join the conversation →

According to FotMob, Sunderland have recorded 13.2 expected goals (xG) in the Premier League despite scoring just five, while their expected goals against (xGA) stands at 15.7 compared to the 17 they have conceded. Their expected points tally is 12, seven more than the five they have actually collected.

The expected points table therefore places Sunderland 11th, rather than 20th. Meanwhile, Chelsea have scored 19 goals from just 13.3 xG, suggesting they have been particularly clinical. Their underlying numbers put them ninth in the table, two places and one point above Sunderland.

The Black Cats also beat Chelsea 2-1 home and away last season, while defender Trai Hume has already described Sunday’s fixture as their “biggest game of the season”. Chelsea should be favourites, but the statistics suggest they would be foolish to take this trip to the Stadium of Light lightly.