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HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 01: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans and Tank Dell #3 of the Houston Texans talk after Houston's 30-6 win against the Pittsburgh Steelers at NRG Stadium on October 01, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesWelcome to fantasy football Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season. Last week, the studs weren’t so studly; a few of the duds turned their stats around, and a few of the could-be’s were definitely could-nots (yes, looking at you, Carson Wentz).
This week I will be better. And let’s get started. There are four teams on a bye this week: the Chicago Bears, the Denver Broncos, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There is one International gam: the New England Patriots versus the Detroit Lions, so get these studs out of your flex positions. Most importantly, the trade deadline is over, and some movement will affect your fantasy fortunes.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins was traded from the Las Vegas Raiders to the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings’ Justin Jefferson will get a fantasy bump. The effect on Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, and Tre Tucker remains to be seen.
The Indianapolis Colts traded wide receiver Josh Downs to the Kansas City Chiefs. This is a bump for Downs fantasy value. They also traded receiver Keenan Allen to the San Francisco Niners, where it is also a bump in value for Allen.
For the IDP players, the Jacksonville Jaguars acquired safety Jesse Bates, and the Buffalo Bills acquired safety Amani Hooker. The Jaguars also acquired two defensive tackles, Davon Godchaux from the New Orleans Saints and Jordan Davis from the Philadelphia Eagles.
This is an International game. The better news is that Jack Campbell appears to be improving, and we are continuing to send him all the positive/healing energy we can.
Detroit is a pass funnel defense. While teams are averaging 4.1 rushing yards per attempt against them, they are eighth in rushing yards allowed per game (94.1) and, in their last three games, have only allowed an average of 72.2 rushing yards against them.
Maye had a bad game the last time we saw him. But statistically speaking, his splits coincide with the defenses he is playing against. Against not-so-great defenses, Maye is great, and against good defenses he is average at best.
The Lions are not so great against the pass. Teams average 39.1 passing attempts against them, completing 64.86% of their passes for a league-high 260.9 passing yards.
Maye should have a bounce-back week, and with both Treyvon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined for this game, Kiner is the next man up. And although he is averaging a healthy 4.1 yards per carry, the Lions run defense should keep him in check and the Patriots need to keep up with the Lions, who are averaging league fifth-best 27.8 points per game will necessitate the Patriots’ passing game dominates.
The Niners acquired receiver Allen; monitor Mike Evans’ status for the game.
The Cowboys’ defense is 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (147.4). When playing at home, the defense has given up 6.0 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns in their four home games.
Last week in their win over the Las Vegas Raiders, Black had 11 carries to McCaffrey’s 18. Black averaged 6.4 yards per carry for 70 rushing yards. For the season, he has a 32.2% opportunity share on a 28% snap share. You aren’t reaching for volume but for efficiency when rostering Black. And against a Cowboys defense that is allowing 21.4 fantasy points per game to the running back position while yielding 136 rushing attempts at home, there should be enough for McCaffrey’s volume and Black’s efficiency.
Pickens status remains questionable. And even if he does suit up, he has missed time due to a hamstring injury. That can’t be good.
While the Jets employ a pseudo running back by committee approach, Hall is the back that is on the field for the passing downs. Since his return, he has caught 13 of his 14 targets for 128 yards and five first downs. Most impressive is his 2.51 yards per route run and his 10.4 average yards after catch per reception. The Bills are meh against running backs, 13th in fantasy points per game (19.6), and have given up three receiving touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns to the position.
Cooper has been limited in practice this week with an ankle injury. That can’t be good. And then there is the Jets’ propensity to spread targets around. Last week Cooper led the team with 11 targets; Week 8 it was Garrett Wilson with 12, and in Week 7 it was Braelon Allen with seven.
Last week Waller led the team in targets (10), receptions (8), yards (90), and tied for receiving touchdowns with one. This was also against a Broncos team that had Patrick Surtain shadowing Tetairoa McMillan (six targets, four receptions, 56 yards, and one touchdown).
It won’t exactly be chasing points if you play Waller; he is currently TE9 in expected tight end fantasy points, and his 11.5a Dot leads all tight ends. It is just the focus on McMillian (without the Surtain shadow), and Jalen Coker (not to mention fellow tight end Tommy Tremble) will put a ceiling on Waller’s production this week.
This game played inside will be for first place in the NFC South.
Which sort of brings us to Estime. Last week, Estime controlled 61.5% of the backfield touches with 68.2% of the rushing attempts. The Panthers are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (133.4) and the second-most fantasy points per game (22.9) to the running back position.
*Spoiler Alert* The Saints are giving up the most fantasy points per game (23.3) to the running back position.
The Titans are coming off their bye week. The Jaguars are coming off acquiring two defensive tackles and a safety.
To be honest, the most intriguing aspect of this game is the squashed beef between head coaches Robert Saleh and Liam Cohen. But that may or may not help your fantasy aspirations this week (although who with me thinks Cohen is just the man to have his team put the foot on the gas and not give up this game…just me…okay).
Except for last week’s 85 rushing yards by Justice Hill (which came during garbage time …still counts… and was mostly gained on a 65-yard touchdown run), the Jaguars have not had a running back run for more than 60 yards in a game. And then they went and added defensive tackles Davon Goddaux and Jordan Davis to a run defense that was already fifth-best in the league (89.3 yards per game allowed).
The Titans, who were sellers during the trade, no longer have Jeffrey Simmons or Amani Hooker. Look for the Jaguars to exploit the talent imbalance.
Penix has not been good in his last two starts, and yes, one was in a torrential downpour,r but last week against the Cincinnati Bengals he was 20-of-31 for 162 yards, one touchdown,n and one interception. This week he gets to go against a resurgent Chris Jones and the Chiefs defense. Last week, the Chiefs’ defense had aseason-high 50% pressure rate against the Jets and converted 26.3% into sacks (5). Penix has a 26.9% completion percentage when pressured.
I fully expect (and hopeful wishing) Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to test out their newly acquired acquisition. The Falcons are giving up 228 passing yards per game and 21.0 fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
The Colts (although they did not trade Taylor) are in full sale mode. The Dolphins will be playing with Kyle McCord under center in his first NFL start (Malik Willis is on IR).
Enter Gordon. Since the departure of DeForest Buckner, the Colts have allowed at least 158 rushing yards and surrendered 30.1 fantasy points to the running back position, per fantasypros.com.
For the season, Jones has thrown six touchdowns, 10 interceptions, has four fumbles, and has been sacked 24 times.
This isn’t only a divisional rivalry and the return of Cousins, but it is also a Week 1 rematch that the Vikings won 39-22. Love threw for 387 yards with two touchdowns and one interception on 42 passing attempts. Last week in their spanking of the New England Patriots, Love threw for 372 yards with three touchdowns on 29 passing attempts.
The Packers defense last week gave up 102 receiving yards to DeMario Douglas on five receptions. In Week 1 with (mainly) Carson Wentz, Jefferson was the leading receiver against the Packers’ defense with 92 yards and two touchdowns on eight receptions.
Cousins is an improvement over last week’s Wentz; the hope is that in his first game back he will, at the minimum, equal Week 1 Wentz.
The Browns are going back to Watson under center. Watson has been sacked 33 times in eight games. The Texans’ defense is fifth in pressure rate (40%) and tied for first in sacks (29) including sacking Justin Herbert eight times last week. That can’t be good.
Meanwhile, Stroud ins second in deep ball attempts (average 5.3p/g), third in air yards (average 335.9 p/g), seventh in passing touchdowns 5.7% rate (16) and fifth in true passer rating (108.3).
The Browns’ defense is only allowing 14.2 fantasy points per game with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. Let me introduce you to their opponents:
The line on this game before the trade was Seahawks -3.5 and point total 43.5
Mike McDonald against nine rookie quarterbacks has 31 sacks, 10 interceptions, and two touchdowns.
The point total for this game started at 40.5.
There will be no Puka Nacua for this game. Nacua accounted for 33.8% target share and 35.2% rate. Stafford will be throwing to his two main receivers now, Konata Mumpfield and Tutu Atwell. Mumpfield has an 8.1% target share and a 14% target rate, and Atwell has a 6.9% target share and a 14.5% target rate.
This is a Sunday Night game.
The Bengals have only allowed five completions to outside and downfield receivers. However, they have allowed a league-high 43% completion percentage on passes thrown down the middle of the field. And *Spoiler Alert*, they have given up a 31% completion percentage to tight ends and 9.3 fantasy points to the position.
This is a Monday Night Football game.
The Chargers are in a free fall. Their sole trade fell through. Their quarterback has been sacked 31 times while throwing six touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Brissett is capable and should increase the fantasy value of Zay Flowers.
We are halfway through the NFL season and creeping closer to the fantasy football playoffs. This season is chaos at its forefront. Lean into the chaos, but don’t forget the stats. You got this. Good Luck and Play Nice.
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