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Fantasy Football: Backup QBs get their chance, while Jordan Love shows how it's done

For the last week, I've been playing armchair GM. I drafted fake NFL trades. I mapped out which backups would inherit a role once their teammate got shipped out. I had a few stashes picked out for when the dominoes started falling on Tuesday.

Then Sunday happened.

The trade deadline is still looming in the background. Some of those moves will happen, and we'll sort through the fallout next week. But the games had other plans. Injuries reshuffled depth charts faster than any front office could. And a few players reminded us that while we're busy speculating about who's going where, the guys on the field still decide what happens.

That's the funny thing about fantasy. We can spend all week preparing for one storyline, and the biggest news comes from somewhere else entirely. So, let's set the rumors aside for a moment and dig into what Sunday actually told us.

Next Man Up, Next Offense Up

Injuries and some bad QB play brought four new signal-callers into our lives in Week 9. Well, at least new to the 2026 season, because we've seen or have narratives on each of these guys from years past. But in a couple of cases, holding onto those priors may have been poor process. Take Shedeur Sanders' day for instance. 

I feel like I got the best of both worlds here. My Bengals got a win while Cleveland lost, and Sanders kept the Browns' passing game alive. And credit to the sophomore passer. While mostly completing passes in the short area of the field, he was slinging the ball in every direction and distance. His final two drives were everything you'd want out of a backup.

However, before folks start whispering "QB controversy," I'd have them look under the hood regarding Sanders' output.

  • EPA per Dropback: -0.21 (2025 Sanders), -0.05 (Week 9 Sanders), -0.03 (Watson)

  • Passing Success Rate: 34.6%, 33.3%, 44.0%

  • Pressure-to-Sack Rate: 17.5%, 31.3%, 25.4%

So, two things can be true at once. In the right matchup, Cleveland's pass-catching nucleus of Denzel Boston (6-98-0), KC Concepcion (4-85-1) and Harold Fannin Jr. (2-42-1) can make a QB look great in the box score. But that doesn't mean that they were. Sanders had a -6.7% CPOE on the day. And before you blame the Browns' offensive line, Sanders' three-second average time to throw is the third longest of either Cleveland QB through Week 9. Two of his five sacks came on third down, ending drives. And seeing Sanders sitting at 9.3 YAC per completion (ninth-most of any starting QB this season) lends credence to the idea that the Browns' receivers did the heavy lifting.

Even if Sanders keeps the job, unless he faces the Saints every week, we shouldn't expect anything different out of this offense than if Watson were under center.

I could say the same about the Eagles switching up their QB1.

A positive from Joe Milton's first start was that we saw flashes of the old Eagles offense (complimentary). Milton's nine touches and 64 yards on the ground were the most of any Philly QB all season. But past that, we saw more of the same offense we've seen throughout the entire season (derogatory). 

Of course, operating behind a reconstructed offensive line without your WR1 would put any QB in a bad spot. Five of Milton's seven sacks came on pressures under 2.5 seconds. But he threw short of the sticks on a third of his third-down attempts. Just six of his throws of double-digit air yards turned into completions. Milton did get to show off his cannon of an arm on a few throws. But without much talent around him, opposing GMs should be giving the Eagles a call before Tuesday afternoon.

Coincidentally, one of the last games of the afternoon featured the remaining two backup-turned-starter QBs. 

Well, there you have it. Drew Lock’s TD pass to AJ Barner was the only passing score in the game. Between Lock and Gardner Minshew, the two journeyman QBs totaled 341 yards. Hopefully, you weren’t stuck with either as a streaming option. But most were looking to their skill players for production. And at least with Seattle, they kept to the status quo.

  • PROE: -8.7% (Weeks 6-8), -8.9% (Week 9)

  • Target Share (Smith-Njigba): 36.4%, 35.7%

Sure, we’d all be feeling better if Jaxon Smith-Njigba came down in the end zone with the ball instead of Barner. But Lock was, well, locked in on No. 11. His first five passes went toward his WR1. The only real change was a shift in the backfield rotation.

  • Charbonnet: 35.3% (Week 8 Rushing Share), 64.0% (Week 9 Rushing Share)

  • Price: 58.8%, 36.0%

Jadarian Price was able to partially salvage his day with a 4-54-0 stat line as a receiver. But Zach Charbonnet was on the field for 42.9% of Seattle’s red-zone snaps while Price was down at 14.3%. Charbonnet was also the preferred short-yardage back, converting two of three attempts. Luckily, the Seahawks face the Raiders next week, who are allowing a league-high 132.1 YPG to opposing RBs. It sets up for both RBs to succeed, but without a defined split, we’ll need at least another week to figure out who’s the best start in Seattle’s backfield.

On the flip side of that same game, the Cardinals took the progressive approach to play-calling.

Arizona was at a +5.0% PROE against a coverage unit allowing the second-fewest passing YPG. Garnder Minshew attempted two more passes against Seattle than Jacoby Brissett back in Week 2. Surprisingly, Minshew notched the fifth-best passing success rate against Seattle through nine games. More importantly, he kept his eyes on the only two pass-catchers we care about.

  • Trey McBride: 27.6% (Target Rate), 2.0 (Yards per Route Run)

  • Michael Wilson: 24.1%, 1.94

The only concern is the Cardinals’ play volume. After averaging 69.6 plays per game, Arizona’s time between plays was up, and its total plays were down to 51. At least with Brissett, the increased attempts would allow either McBride or Wilson to rack up yards. In this version, we’re asking for high-end efficiency from Minshew. And against the Rams and Chiefs over the next two weeks, that might be too tall of a request.

Coleman Takes the Reins in Denver

Before I get into the Broncos, I wanted to give a quick salute to Bryce Young and the Panthers. After two weeks with multiple sacks and at least one turnover, Carolina found its rhythm on offense again. Young was decisive with the ball (2.47 time to throw), and his completion percentage was back up over 70% for the first time since Week 4. Accordingly, shifting our focus to Denver, the Panthers' resurgence forced Denver to keep their foot on the gas.

Bo Nix's passing aDOT was over five air yards for just the fourth time this season. And that's after losing Jaylen Waddle, who was playing well, in the first quarter. With the Broncos trailing after the third quarter, Sunday was the third instance where Nix had double-digit attempts to close a game. Pat Bryant (14.7% target rate) and Troy Franklin (11.8%) fell into their old roles as intermediate options. However, the only player who should be on our fantasy radar from Denver was in the backfield.

So we're two weeks into Jonah Coleman's return to the lineup. Along with RJ Harvey being on IR, the Broncos' backfield has condensed to two RBs. But looking at Coleman's usage rates across both games, Denver's really down to just one rusher.

  • (Coleman) Rushing Share: 61.1% (Week 8), 81.0% (Week 9)

  • Route Rate: 50.0%, 71.1%

  • Green-Zone Touch Rate: 83.3%, 100.0%

Over the last two weeks, Coleman has been the guy in every situation that's correlated to fantasy scoring. J.K. Dobbins hasn't taken a snap on third or fourth downs. When Nix has targeted his RBs, the rookie has secured all but two attempts. And when Denver gets into scoring position, Coleman has out-touched the veteran almost 3:1. The Broncos are heading into the bye week, but they face the Raiders (who just gave up 157 all-purpose yards to the 49ers' RBs) twice over their next five games.

You'll have to overpay to secure him, but this week will be your last chance to get Coleman on your squad.

Walk(er) This Way

The story from Sunday was Patrick Mahomes' elbow injury. In the moment, the comparisons to Brock Purdy's UCL tear from '22 were at the forefront of everybody's minds. But Mahomes not only came back to the game, but also spoke to the media about his situation after the game. 

"If I'm able to play…"

None of this sounds great. But after seeing images of Mahomes cradling his arm, we'll take what we can get. Besides, the play-calling and pass-game execution already favored a QB with an injured throwing arm.

  • Passing aDOT: 3.1 (pre-injury), 2.8 (post-injury)

  • Avg. Time to Throw: 2.39, 2.15

Mahomes' passing chart against the Jets looks like a normal image from earlier in his career, just compressed. He threw two passes that traveled 10 or more air yards in the second half. Mahomes is now on a two-game streak with zero completions on intermediate or deep throws. On the one hand, having one of the greatest passers reduced to a dink-and-dunk QB would be great for players like Rashee Rice (24.1% target share) or Travis Kelce (20.7%). But they're not the only ones benefiting from Mahomes keeping it short.

Kenneth Walker III watched Emmett Johnson create explosives as a receiver in Week 8 and decided to get back into the action against the Jets.

Walker had 41 receiving yards. Forty-four of them came after the catch. Re-read those last two sentences. No, that's not a typo.

Because half of his targets came behind the LoS, Walker had more YAC than total yards through the air. In either case, because Walker re-established his efficiency as a pass-catcher while maintaining his dominance over the backfield, we should expect to see him in the RB1 conversation for the rest of the season.

No Labor for This Love

Not to say I know a ton about QB mechanics, but you pick stuff up over the years. Like how to set your feet, generate torque through your hips and drive the football. Essentially, there's a theoretical way to do it. Jordan Love has his own approach.

Drifting back in the pocket. Throwing off his back foot. Releasing a pass that looks like a meatball sub for the defense … until the camera pans far enough to see a Packer receiver in perfect position to come down with the ball. Green Bay's highlights had it all. Love and HC Matt LaFleur watched Cincinnati's offense turn its pass-game triumvirate into gods in the morning on Week 9 and, not to be outdone, decided they'd put on a similar show in the afternoon. 

  • Target Rate (Golden + Watson): 66.6%

  • Air Yard Share: 77.9%

  • Receiving Yards Ratio: 90.1%

I reference passing success rate a lot, but it's a gauge of how often a QB is keeping their offense on schedule in terms of yardage gained or EPA generated on a specific down. Love had 18 of those throws against the Patriots; 15 of them went to Matthew Golden and Christian Watson. Love completed 13 passes that turned into first downs or TDs. Nos. 9 and 0 accounted for 12. Unless you rostered and started Josh Jacobs, you didn't notice he left early with a fractured finger, and the Packers' running game was back to where it was before he rejoined the team.

Love's toughest test will be Green Bay's divisional rematch against the Vikings in Week 10. After its bye, three of its next five opponents are in the top 10 in fantasy PPG allowed to QBs. If you're looking to make a push into the playoffs, swinging for one of the main pieces of the Packers' passing game will help secure you a spot.

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