Yasser Mercedes is getting his opportunity to impress the Minnesota Twins during the Arizona Fall League. It’s about his future within the organization.

Mercedes is one of several Twins playing in the AFL but he's one player that Minnesota will have to make a key decision about in the next few weeks, one that could determine whether he remains in the organization.

The Rule 5 draft is coming up in December with the caveat that it may be suspended if there is no agreement between Major League owners and the MLB Players Association on a new collective bargaining agreement.

But if somehow the two sides agree and the Rule 5 draft comes up as scheduled on Dec.9, the Twins will have to decide whether Mercedes is worth protecting or not.

Why Yasser Mercedes’ Time with Twins is On Line

Major League teams can't stash prospects forever. At a certain point, they must be made available to other teams through the Rule 5 draft. Eligible prospects include those that signed a professional contract at 18 or young and have played five years in the minor leagues, or prospects who signed a professional contract after age 19 or older and have played at least four years.

Mercedes falls into the latter camp. He signed with the Twins as an undrafted free agent out of Puerto Rico and played his first professional season in 2022. MLB Pipeline lists Mercedes as a Top 30 prospect which means there may be a team or two out there that has interest in the 21-year-old if he's left unprotected.

The only way to protect a player from the rule 5 draft is to add them to the 40-man roster. This offseason that's a complicated equation. By putting Mercedes on the 40-man the Twins would have to make room on the roster by releasing a player. But by placing Mercedes on the 40-man roster he would be subject to the current MLB CBA and would not be able to participate in minor league baseball in 2027, which likely stunts his development. And the Twins want him to develop.

After he batted under .200 in 2025, his bat perked up in 2026 with a slash of .249/.343/.453 with 18 home runs and 72 RBI. The outfielder reached High-A Cedar Rapids, and a case could be made that his development is about to accelerate. The AFL may be proving that right. He’s slashed .269/.412/.500 with one home run and five RBI.

The Twins could roll the dice and leave Mercedes unprotected. If he isn't selected, he stays in the system and gets to play for the Twins in the minor leagues in 2027. But the better he plays in Arizona — in front of scouts from other teams — the possibility grows that he could pop up on radars come draft day.

That is, if there is a draft day. And that's just another reason that makes Mercedes case for the 40-man roster and the Rule 5 draft so complicated.