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Nations Championship reaches decisive stage as relegation threat looms in 2030

The deciding final stetch of the Nations Championship kicks off this weekend, with all to play for in rugby's new global competition

Wales' Nations Championship campaign gets back under way this weekend (Image: Huw Evans Picture Agency Ltd)

International rugby union is back on the agenda for the next month as the inaugural Nations Championship returns for the deciding stretch.

Designed to replace the traditional July and November international Test windows, the tournament pits the world’s top sides against one another, with silverware on the line.

For Wales, this tournament comes at a critical time of transition. With Test matches against the southern hemisphere opposition across November leading into a show-stopping finals weekend in London, every game carries a certain amount of jeopardy.

Here's what's happened so far and what you can expect over the coming weeks.

How does the Nations Championship work?

The Nations Championship is a global tournament held every two years featuring 12 elite-level teams which have been split into two distinct six-nation groups representing the northern and southern hemispheres. Japan and Fiji have joined the southern division alongside the traditional Rugby Championship sides to balance the tournament standings.

Every nation plays six pool matches. Three in July (in the southern hemisphere) and then three in November (in the northern hemisphere), with teams facing only those who are in the opposite pool to them.

The points system follows the standard World Rugby framework, meaning it will be: 4 points for a win, 2 for a draw, and 0 for a loss, alongside bonus points for scoring four or more tries or losing within seven points.

Following the six pool rounds, all 12 nations will be travelling to London’s Allianz Stadium (previously known as Twickenham) from the 27th to the 29th of November. Teams will play a seed-versus-seed cross-hemisphere final fixture, depending on how the northern and southern hemisphere table finish.

So first will play first for the overall title, second will face second and so on.

What’s happened so far?

The July Tests proved to be a reality check for several European teams. The southern hemisphere sides made home advantage count, putting early points on the board.

For Wales, things were looking good as they recorded an opening 39-24 victory over Fiji at Cardiff City Stadium. The match was designated as a “home” fixture for Fiji, despite being held in Cardiff due to logistical and financial reasons. Wales then headed south, suffering defeats against Argentina and South Africa.

The Springboks and New Zealand underlined their status as the two best teams in the world, winning maximum points from their opening three fixtures.

France lead the way in the northern hemisphere.

Wales are set to take on Japan next in the tournament on November 7 at the Principality Stadium, followed by New Zealand and Australia.

As things stand, Wales would be due to face Japan on the finals weekend in the 5th v 5th match.

Is there promotion and relegation?

Not yet – but it is coming.

For this edition of the Nations Championship, the core 12-team line-up is fixed. Meaning there is no promotion or relegation this year, which guarantees all participating unions high-profile fixtures.

However, a second-tier competition which is being run by World Rugby is operating concurrently, featuring the likes of Georgia, Spain, Portugal, Tonga, Samoa and USA. Starting in 2030, a promotion and relegation play-off system is expected to take effect between the top tier and the challenger tier.

While there is no immediate threat of dropping down this month, relegation for the likes of Wales would prove catastrophic from a sporting and financial perspective from 2030.

What do the world rankings say?

World Rugby’s official rankings will fluctuate week-to-week as results roll in throughout November, but as of now, South Africa and New Zealand continue to exchange blows at the top of the standings, closely followed by Ireland and Six Nations champions France.

England, Scotland, Australia and Argentina occupy the middle spots, capable of beating anyone on their day, but all three are continuing to search for back-to-back consistency.

Wales currently sit in 10th, just behind Fiji and uncomfortably close to Italy and Japan beneath them. A victory over Japan and a win over Australia would see them in a much stronger place by the end of the month.

Nations Championship 2026 – Fixtures

Friday, November 6

Ireland v Argentina – 8.10pm

Saturday, November 7

  • Italy v South Africa – 11.40am
  • Scotland v New Zealand – 2.10pm
  • Wales v Japan – 4.40pm
  • France v Fiji – 8.10pm

Sunday, November 8

England v Australia – 3.10pm

Friday, November 13

France v South Africa – 8.10pm

Saturday, November 14

  • Italy v Argentina – 11.40am
  • Wales v New Zealand – 2.10pm
  • England v Japan – 4.40pm
  • Ireland v Fiji – 8.10pm

Sunday, November 15

Scotland v Australia – 3.10pm

Saturday, November 21

  • England v New Zealand – 2.10pm
  • Scotland v Japan – 2.10pm
  • Ireland v South Africa – 4.40pm
  • Italy v Fiji – 4.40pm
  • France v Argentina – 8.10pm
  • Wales v Australia – 8.10pm

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