With Decision Day done and dusted, the fight for postseason glory is about to take over Major League Soccer.

After a chaotic regular season, only 18 teams remain in the hunt for the 2026 MLS Cup. The top nine clubs in the Eastern and Western Conferences all secured their place in the playoffs, where the league’s biggest stars will hope to show out for their teams.

After two elimination wild card matches, the official bracket will be set, outlining the path to this year’s MLS Cup final. Defending champions Inter Miami were the favorites to retain their crown before the season kicked off, but fierce competitors have emerged, headlined by B. J. Callaghan’s sensational Nashville SC side.

Suddenly, the Herons are no longer a lock to go back-to-back, despite Lionel Messi still firing on all cylinders. Even the Opta supercomputer doesn’t have much faith in Inter Miami to repeat last season’s success.

Supercomputer Predicts 2026 MLS Cup Winner

Opta backs Supporters’ Shield winners Nashville SC to win the 2026 MLS Cup. The Boys in Gold put together the best regular season in league history, amassing 77 points and only suffering three defeats in 34 games.

Nashville are given a staggering 22.16% chance of lifting their first MLS Cup come December. They kick off their postseason run against the Eastern Conference wild card winners: Orlando City or FC Cincinnati.

The Vancouver Whitecaps are not far behind. Thomas Müller and Co. have a 21% chance of avenging last season’s runners-up finish. The Canadian outfit comfortably finished the regular season atop the Western Conference standings, and gets to play Round One against the Western Conference wild card winners: Seattle Sounders or Real Salt Lake.

The Whitecaps also have an easier run—on paper, at least—to the MLS Cup final compared to any Eastern Conference team. The likes of Nashville, Inter Miami, New England Revolution and Philadelphia Union are all on the other side of the bracket.

The biggest threat to Vancouver’s place in the MLS Cup final is FC Dallas. The supercomputer gives the Western Conference side a 10.42% chance of stealing Inter Miami’s crown.

Dallas are the only other contenders with double-digit odds to claim MLS glory in December, and Petar Musa is a large reason. The Croatian finished second in the Golden Boot standings, with 22 goals in 30 league appearances.

The supercomputer rates Dallas higher than defending champions Inter Miami, despite the Herons finishing the regular season with two more points from the harder division. Then, there’s the Messi factor.

The eight-time Ballon d’Or winner already picked up his second MLS Golden Boot and is a frontrunner to win a record-third MLS MVP award. There is no player more dangerous under the brightest lights than Messi, yet Opta only gives Kily González’s men an 8.24% chance of successfully defending their title.

It’s true that history is not on Inter Miami’s side; only three teams in history have won back-to-back MLS Cups, with the LA Galaxy’s 2011 and 2012 triumphs the last time a team defended its MLS crown.

But counting out Messi is never a wise decision, even when his team looks undeserving of silverware—just look at what he did with the Herons last season and Argentina over the summer. At age 39, he is still the ultimate equalizer and will be back in action in Round One against the Columbus Crew.

Rounding out the supercomputer’s top five are St. Louis CITY, who kick off their postseason berth against the formidable LAFC. The Missouri-based side comes in with a 6.12% chance of climbing the mountaintop.

St. Louis already lifted silverware this season, besting the Crew in a penalty shootout to claim the U.S. Open Cup, but the MLS Cup remains the ultimate goal, especially for a team that only officially joined the league in 2023.