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NFL survivor picks, strategy: Week 7 safe, value, and trap options
Indianapolis Colts v Minnesota Vikings Getty Images
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - NOVEMBER 03: Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings and Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts embrace after the game at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 03, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Welcome back for Week 7! We have three remaining undefeated teams, with the 49ers sitting at 6-0 and the Chiefs and Vikings at 5-0. The 49ers face both teams, so maybe later this season we get some undefeated vs. undefeated matchups!

The NFL returns to action with the playoff starting to pick up steam. November is when people really start digging in, but we’re at the point where teams are facing must-win situations. The Texans had one of those last week, beating the Jaguars in London to improve to 2-4. The Browns made a bit of a statement in coming back to beat a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens squad. The Saints got a big road win over the Giants to help their NFC South chances.

This week, the Giants and Texans are facing off in what is important for both teams. The Giants will send out J.J. McCarthy for his first start after replacing Jameis Winston last week. The NFC East is a disaster and if the Giants can move things along with McCarthy, it’s very winnable. The Texans finally have some momentum after a messy start and the AFC South is pretty wide open as well behind the Jaguars.

I’m back with my Week 7 Survivor picks ahead of Patriots-Bears on Thursday Night Football. Survivor involves picking one team each week to win. If they win you advance, if they lose you’re out in most cases. I’m in one pool with four entries, but it’s also a double-elimination pool. I’ve lost two of my entries, with the Cowboys stinging last week. I’m down to two entries, each of which has one strike. We’re riding a fine line!

Below I’ve got a look at the safest choices, best value picks, and then trap picks. I’ll post my own picks at the end. I’ll update on Sunday once I lock in my three picks for the weekend.

I’ve included odds for the favorite in each game, courtesy of FanDuel.

Safest picks

Texans (-10.5) over Giants

The Texans defense should be able to put J.J. McCarthy in a blender. And given how C.J. Stroud has been playing, I just don’t see how the Giants can keep up.

Best value picks

Texans (-10.5) over Giants
Vikings (-6.5) over Colts

You could save the Texans for Week 18, but that’s a long way off. The Vikings aren’t huge favorites, but there isn’t much reason left to use them the rest of this season.

Trap pick

Jets (-4.5) over Dolphins
Cowboys (-4.5) over Eagles

These are two divisional games involving four mediocre to bad teams. Stay away from them.

My picks this week

I have two entries left and I’m leaning toward using the Texans with one pick and the Vikings with the other.

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