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Cal Football Game Preview: Bears Travel to No. 23 SMU

Cal is a heavy underdog against SMU in a game that starts at 9 a.m. Saturday morning West Coast time

Kendrick Raphael (1) was a running back for Cal against SMU last year. On Saturday he will be an SMU running back against Cal | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Cal plays a road game against 23rd-ranked SMU on Saturday morning.


The game preview:

CAL (3-4, 2-2 ACC) vs. NO. 23 SMU (5-1, 3-1 ACC)

SITE: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas

WHEN: Saturday, 9 a.m. Pacific time (11 a.m. Dallas time)

TV: The CW -- Thom Brennaman (Play-By-Play), Jason Cabinda (Analyst), Wes Bryant (Sideline Reporter)

RADIO: 810 AM -- Justin Allegri (Play-By-Play), Mike Pawlawski (Analyst)

BETTING LINE: SMU is favored by 18.5 points according to FanDuel, and SMU is favored by 19.5 points according to DraftKings as of Friday. Over/Under is 53.5 points.

WEATHER FORECAST: Dallas will be mostly sunny with the temperature about 75 degrees when the game begins at 11 a.m. Dallas time. The temperature will rise to about 82 degrees by the time the game ends.

Cal-SMU History

This will be the fourth meeting between Cal and SMU, and the Mustangs hold a 2-1 lead in the series, Cal upset 21st-ranked SMU last year, when Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele led a 75-yard touchdown drive in the final minute to give the Bears a 38-35 win. The only time the teams met in SMU was 2024, when the Mustangs handed Cal a 38-6 defeat. The first meeting came in the 1957 season opener when SMU defeated Cal 13-7 in Berkeley.

CAL PLAYER AVAILABILITY: Running back Adam Mohammed, running back Carter Vargas, tight end Dorian Thomas and defensive lineman Nate Burrell are all out. Wide receivers Ian Strong, Cooper Perry, Jordan King and Mark Hamper are questionable. Offensive linemen Bastian Swinney, Sioape Vatikani and Jimothy Lewis Jr. are questionable. Defensive lineman Jericho Johnson is questionable.

SMU PLAYER AVAILABILITY: S Tyren Polley Jr., RB Dramekco Green and DE Ira Singleton IV are out. Safety Ahmaad Moses and K Nick Reed are questionable.

Cal Storylines

---Cal has not announced who its starting quarterback will be for this game, but it is expected to be Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has not started the past two games after getting a concussion late in the first half of the October 3 game against UNLV. Although it seems Sagapolutele is not playing as well as he did last year as a freshman, his passer rating of 137.40 this season is better than his 131.61 passer rating for the entire 2025 season.

---Cal again will be without its leading rusher, Adam Mohammed, and that hampers a running game that has struggled even when Mohammed is in the lineup. Running backs. Cal ranks 137th of the 138 FBS teams in rushing, averaging 90.3 yards per game. Only Hawaii is worse. Cal averages 3.29 yards per rushing attempts, which is the lowest in the ACC.

---Cal ranks sixth in the ACC in passing yards per game, but SMU ranks first in the ACC and 11th in the country in passing defense. The Mustangs rank eighth in the country in passer rating defense. The Mustangs’ strong pass rush is part of the reason they are good against the pass.

---Cal is coming off a 41-7 loss to then-No. 21 Wake Forest one week after the Bears upset Virginia Tech 25-20. Jackson Brousseau was Cal’s starting quarterback in both games.

---Cal needs to win three of their remaining five games to become bowl-eligible for the fourth straight season. The Bears need four wins in their final five regular-season games plus a possible bowl game to ensure they finish with a winning record for the second straight season and for just the second time in seven years.

--- Cal’s Tosh Lupoi is hoping for a strong finish to his first season as a college head coach. Justin Wilcox went 5-7 in his first season with the Bears (2017), Sonny Dykes finished 1-11 in his first season in Berkeley (2013), Jeff Tedford had a 7-5 record his first year (2002), Tom Holmoe was 3-8 in his first season (1997), Steve Mariucci was 6-6 in his only year at Cal (1996), Keith Gilbertson was 4-7 in his initial year as the Bears’ coach (1992), Bruce Snyder was 3-6-2 in his first season (1987) and Joe Kapp had a 7-4 record in his first season as a head coach at Cal (1982).

---This is the first of three consecutive road games for Cal, whose next home game is the November 21 Big Game against Stanford.

---Cal safety Kingston Lopa has missed two games and has not had an interception since the third game of the season against Wagner, but he is still ted for the national lead in interceptions with five.

---Cal has been an underdog according to betting sites in every game against FBS teams this season. The 19.5-point spread for this game is the largest Cal has faced this season as an underdog. Before this week, the largest point spread favoring Cal’s opponent was the 10.5-point spread for last week’s game against Wake Forest, according to DraftKings.

SMU Storylines

---SMU is in position to land a spot in the ACC championship game for the second time in its three years in the ACC. The Mustangs are one of four teams with one conference loss behind Miami, the only team with no ACC losses. SMU does not face Miami this season and its pivotal game may be the November 14 home game against 17th-ranked Wake Forest.

---SMU is 4-0 at home this season and is unbeaten at home in conference games since joining the ACC prior to the 2024 season. SMU is averaging 43.6 points per game over its last 25 home games, dating back to 2022.

---The Mustangs have won three straight games overall this season, including last week’s 23-13 win over Virginia. Their lone loss was a 41-31 defeat at Louisville on September 19. SMU’s margin of victory has not been more than 10 points against any of its four games against FBS opponents this season. SMU has been ranked in the AP top-25 every week this season.

---SMU’s Gerald J. Ford Stadium has a seating capacity of 33,200, which makes it the second-smallest stadium among Power Four conference teams. Only Wake Forest’s stadium, which seats 31,500, is smaller.

---SMU has a 17-3 record in conference games since joining the ACC in 2024, along with Cal and Stanford. That is the most conference wins by an ACC team since the start of the 2024 season.

---SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings is first in the ACC and fourth nationally in passing yards per game, averaging 306.5 yards. He is second in the ACC in passer rating, behind only Miami’s Darian Mensah, and is ninth in the country in that category. Jennings has more career passing yards (9,548) than any other active ACC quarterback. He has also run for 95 yards this season. Jennings was the runnerup, behind Mensah, in the voting for 2026 preseason ACC player of the year.

---Running back Kendrick Raphael leads SMU in rushing this season after leading Cal in rushing last year. Raphael rushed for 943 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Bears last season, and he ran for 111 yards and caught five passes for 53 yards for Cal in the Bears’ 38-35 victory over SMU in 2025. This season, he has run for 537 yards and caught nine passes for 72 yards for SMU. He had 119 yards on the ground in last week’s 23-13 victory over Virginia.

---SMU safety Tyren Polley Jr. is second on the team in tackles and has three tackles for loss and three pass breakup0s, but he suffered a season-ending pectoral injury in last week’s win over Virginia.

---SMU’s 18 sacks this season rank third in the ACC, and the Mustangs’ average of 3.0 sacks per game rank second in the conference. The Mustangs’ 142 sacks since the start of the 2023 season are the most in the country during that span.

---The Mustangs ranks third in the ACC in both total offense and total defense. The Mustangs lead the ACC in pass defense, but are 13th in the conference in run defense. They allow 4.1 yards per rushing attempt, and only two ACC teams are worse than that. However, Cal ranks last in the ACC and 137th in the country in rushing offense.

Cal Players to Watch

QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele – If he starts as expected, it would be his first start since the October 3 game against UNLV

WR Chase Hendricks – Hendricks is fourth in the ACC in receptions with 47.

WR Ian Strong -- He missed last week's game with an injury and is questionable for Saturday's game, but he leads Cal in yards per reception (14.1)

RB Ashten Emory -- With Adam Mohammed out again, Emory is expected to be Cal's main ball-carrier. He had 56 yards on 12 carries last week against Wake Forest.

S Kingston Lopa – Lopa is tied for the national lead in interceptions with five.

TE Taimane Purcell – Freshman Purcell has 10 receptions for 153 yards over the past three games.

S Isaiah Crosby – He has a team-leading 40 tackles along with one interception, one pass breakup and one forced fumble.

SMU Players to Watch

QB Kevin Jennings – He is the ACC leader in passing yards per game.

RB Kendrick Raphael – Former Cal running back is third in the ACC in rushing yards per game (89.5)

WR Yamir Knight – He has 48 catches for 418 yards and two touchdowns.

WR Yannick Smith – Smith had 10 catches for 117 yards over his past two games

TE Randy Pittman Jr. – He has a team-leading four touchdown catches

DE Marques White – 6.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 4 quarterback hurries, 1 pass breakup, 1 forced fumble.

LB Alexander Kilgore – Kilgore has a team-leading 35 tackles, including 2.5 tackles for loss, and three quarterback hurries.

JAKE'S PICK: SMU 28, Cal 21

JEFF'S PICK: SMU 31, Cal 21

LIA ASSIMAKOPOULOS (Dallas Morning News): SMU 35, Cal 14

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

· If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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