A top-10 matchup looms in Provo in Week 7 college football, Utah, as No. 8 BYU hosts the No. 2 -ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish with ESPN’s College GameDay on site. Although this is a top-10 matchup, Kalshi’s college football market is extremely bullish on Notre Dame to win at 78% and a massive 10.5-point spread.

Both teams come in undefeated, with Notre Dame 6-0 and BYU 5-0. At their current prices, a $10 trade profits $2.46 on Notre Dame and $33.09 on BYU. 

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Laying too much on the Irish?

The spread is concerning in this one, given the talent on both sides. These are two top-10 defenses in the country. Notre Dame is allowing just 11 points and BYU is allowing 13.4 points. Offensively, Notre Dame has been a juggernaut all season, averaging 44 points and 456.7 yards per game. BYU sits at 34.6 points and 433.4 yards.

While Notre Dame has looked formidable this year, this is its toughest test yet. Notre Dame has played Wisconsin, Rice, Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Stanford. With the exception of Wisconsin, all others sit at or below a .500 record. The six combine for a 15-19 record to this point. The Irish have also won every game by 10+ points, including three by 30+. BYU is one of only six teams still undefeated against the spread.

Aside from the standard numbers, the biggest case to make for BYU is that it holds an undefeated 5-0 record against the spread and a +9.8 cover margin. Overall, Notre Dame is 4-2 ATS and has a +2.5 cover margin.

For Notre Dame, they are 1-1 against the spread on the road this season and only covering by +0.8 points on average.

As far as game flow, this is the toughest defense that CJ Carr will face. BYU leads the Big 12 in fewest total yards allowed per game at 254.4, including the third-best secondary in the conference, at 174 passing yards allowed.

Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. EST on ABC from LaVell Edwards Stadium.

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