England have tasted defeat, and the nature of it means they now face an uphill battle to reach the semi-finals.

A loss to Tonga means progression is out of their hands. But the margin of defeat, a 30-12 loss, makes things even harder.

As we know, groups B & C go into a cumulative league table, with the top two advancing to the semis.

A loss today now means England are almost certainly unable to finish above Tonga. That is because teams who finish level on points are then determined on a head-to-head record.

Of course, Tonga could lose to both Samoa and Lebanon, but that appears unlikely at this point.

No result is ever guaranteed but it’s fair to suggest Samoa will be very strong favourites to beat Papua New Guinea when they clash. Likewise, England will be expected to beat the Kumuls and the French.

So in reality, England’s best hopes of advancing now comes through points difference and getting the edge over Samoa on that front.

So they will now be cheering on Tonga against the Samoans, hoping they win that game to ensure it does come down to points difference.

England have France and Papua New Guinea to play and they will now need to post a lot of points if they want to advance. Winning is unlikely to be enough. That’s down to Samoa thrashing France on Friday, winning 78-4.

With that, England’s points difference is currently inferior by 80, leaving them with a lot of catching up to do already.

They will be favourites to win both their games, but with Samoa still to play PNG and already having a big result under their belt, England really are up against it if they wish to progress.

Given that, England are now at real risk of not advancing through the groups for the first time in World Cup history, a grim reality for Brian McDermott and his side.

Put simply, winning is unlikely to be enough for England now. They need to win, and win healthy.