I know the above headline sounds silly considering the weekend Lewis Hamilton had with Ferrari in Singapore but stick with it.

Just for a recap, Hamilton chucked away an almost certain P3 at Marina Bay when he decided to ignore Ferrari's strategy and go his own way... which turned out to be the wrong way and eventually saw him stumble to P6 on tyres that had long given up their best performance.

The good news is none of that in the grand scheme of things really matters two weeks on in Austin for the United States Grand Prix.

United States Grand Prix favourites

Officially, according to bookies, Hamilton is fifth favourite to win at the Circuit of the Americas. Max Verstappen is favourite having won the last two races hardly breaking a sweat.

Mercedes having arguably the quickest car makes them always among the favourites with Kimi Antonelli and George Russell, while McLaren's Lando Norris is fourth favourite.

Now betting on a driver who has won only one grand prix this season, and that was back in June with the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix, may not sound like a smart strategy but the seven-time world champion always seems to be on the cusp of competing.

Take the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia, where he was convinced that had he started on the correct tyres he could have challenged Verstappen for the win, rather than fight through the field to get P3.

In Singapore, P2 only ever seemed like the ceiling for Ferrari's pace, but the point is they are close enough for an advantage to fall their way as the circuits change.

One of those circuits could be COTA and that's because this is low key one of Hamilton's best tracks.

Low key because when you think of the 41-year-old's best tracks, you think of Silverstone (nine wins from 21 races), the Hungaroring (eight wins from 20 races) or even Montreal (seven wins from 17 races).

Hamilton's mighty COTA record

What gets forgotten though is COTA where Hamilton has won from five of his 13 races there. Now the previous three tracks have been on the F1 calendar since Hamilton debuted in 2007, Austin is a little different. Hamilton didn't have the chance to drive there in his formative McLaren years in 2007 or 2008 (although he did win the US Grand Prix at Indianapolis in his rookie season.)

Hamilton won the first race at COTA with his last McLaren victory in 2012, but no one was stopping Sebastian Vettel or Red Bull the following year as the combo won the last nine races of the season with an ultimate dominant package, with Hamilton fourth in his first Mercedes season.

But Hamilton then won the next four races between 2014 and 2017, including winning the world championship in 2015.

A third place followed in 2018, while his second in 2019 was enough to win the world championship again.

Max Verstappen defended hard to win from Hamilton in 2021, while in 2022 Hamilton took a Mercedes inferior to Red Bull and Ferrari to second place.

In 2023, Hamilton finished second on the road behind the all conquering Verstappen Red Bull pairing before being disqualified for excessive wear on the rear skid block, while 2024 was probably his only bad weekend at the track where he spun out on lap two.

We know that Hamilton's first season at Ferrari was below expectations but his fourth place at COTA last year was his joint best result of the season.

Hamilton consistently in the mix

So, when Hamilton does finish a race at the track it's always in the top four, and aside from the 2024 catastrophe, he also always qualifies in the top five.

Now, this isn't an article to say Hamilton will win the US Grand Prix, but if he is only fifth favourite with the track record he has got and how well he has the Ferrari under him this year, it may not be a silly bet to make.