The frustrating 2-2 draw away at Dundee on Saturday (17 October) evening did more than just halt a seven-game winning streak – it has dealt a severe blow to Rangers and their statistical chances of lifting the Scottish Premiership trophy.

Derek McInnes’ side looked on course to take all three points after Nicolas Raskin’s stunning knuckleball strike put the visitors ahead. However, a costly second-half error from Dan Neil allowed Dundee back into the contest, forcing Rangers to settle for a frustrating point.

Opta Supercomputer gives Rangers 23.35% chance of winning Premiership

Now, updated data from Opta’s Supercomputer model has calculated the full mathematical impact of those two dropped points at Dens Park. When ranked directly against rivals Celtic, Rangers’ probability of winning the Scottish Premiership title has plummeted to 23.35%.

In contrast, Celtic have seen their title odds surge to 74.64% following the weekend’s action. Hearts sit a distant third in the simulation at 1.90%, while the rest of the division holds less than a fractional chance.

The algorithmic simulation, which simulates thousands of match outcomes based on underlying performance metrics, expected goals (xG), and fixture difficulty, also predicts the final league standings and points tallies. The model projects Rangers to finish the season on 66.06 expected points (xPTS), well adrift of Celtic’s projected total of 72.47 xPTS.

This comes after another Supercomputer model predicted Rangers to finish 11 points behind Celtic earlier this month.

Through the opening nine league fixtures, Rangers have accumulated an expected points total of 18.6 xPTS with an expected goal tally (xGF) of 20.0 against 10.0 expected goals conceded (xGA). In reality, McInnes‘ side have 20 points on the board, having scored 13 goals and conceded 7.

Crucially, the statistical projection highlights how slim the margin for error has become for McInnes and Co. Dropping points in fixtures when win probabilities exceed 60% drastically penalises a team’s championship model trajectory, making subsequent derby meetings and difficult away trips near-mandatory victories to swing the mathematical odds back in Ibrox’s favour.

While McInnes’ side remain firmly in the title hunt with plenty of football left to play, the algorithm underlines how costly individual lapses – such as Saturday’s slip at Dens Park – can be when attempting to overhaul a points deficit.

For McInnes, reversing these algorithmic predictions will require immediate consistency starting this weekend, when they face St Johnstone at Ibrox on Saturday (24 October), as Rangers look to quickly reignite their championship push.

Before that, the team will look to put the Dundee draw behind them with a behind-closed-doors fixture against Steven Pressley’s side on Tuesday, 20 October.