On Wednesday night we will find out the first finalist of the 2026 Copa Libertadores, and it will be Brazilian. Palmeiras host Fluminense at the Nubank Parque with the slender advantage built by the 2-1 scoreline at the Maracana.

Verdao arrive on the back of an excellent away win against Athletico, while the Tricolor from Laranjeiras rested their starters and were beaten in a comeback by Neymar’s Santos.

Match preview

Following the 2-0 win over Athletico at the Arena da Baixada, Abel Ferreira, as usual, gave a heated press conference, firing back at the criticism he receives from the fans.

Goals from Piquerez and Mauricio, both in the first half, secured the three points, despite the needless red card for Andreas Pereira. Verdao held onto second place both away from home and in the overall table with 19 wins. Flamengo sit above them with one more win and one more point (67 to 66).

In the Libertadores, it has not been as smooth a campaign as in previous years, but the draw has been favourable. The first major test was needing penalties to beat LDU in the previous round.

The Verdao side have the best attack in the competition (17), level with Flamengo. Everything points towards a third meeting between the two great South American powers, with a title for each side.

Last week at the Maracana, there was a moment when a more emphatic result could have been built, but Fabio prevented the worst with at least three fine saves. In stoppage time, Wesley Nata kept the Tricolor’s hopes alive. The 45-year-old goalkeeper also prevented a disaster on Sunday against Santos.

Fluminense, for their part, come into this match on the back of a run of defeats in the Brasileirao and in continental competition. Their most recent defeat came last Sunday, October 18, when they hosted Neymar’s Santos.

The 2-1 comeback defeat exposed a reality that Marcao must now manage: the side considered to be his reserves have not been up to the task, while the average age of the starting eleven is almost 33. The physical toll of the closing stages of the Brazilian season tends to punish older squads.

The run of defeats while resting starters has come at a cost: Fluminense have stalled on 51 points and have lost their place in the top four to Cruzeiro, while rivals Atletico-MG sit one point behind, on 50.

In the Libertadores, after a fair group stage, two Argentine sides came up in the knockout rounds, and like Palmeiras, Fluminense had to go through penalties to advance.

Palmeiras Copa Libertadores form:

Palmeiras form (all competitions):

Fluminense Copa Libertadores form:

Fluminense form (all competitions):

Team News

Abel Ferreira’s main doubt is centre-forward Vitor Roque, who has a problem with his right ankle. The number 9 did not train on Monday, October 19, while the starters from the win in Curitiba did light work in a small space.

As a result, the trend is for there to be no changes to last week’s winning line-up. That means the responsibility of finding the net is likely to fall on Flaco Lopez. The Argentine already has 24 goals this year, four of them in the Libertadores, a run of form that has put him on Lionel Scaloni’s radar for Argentina’s next cycle.

On the Rio de Janeiro side, Marcao is hopeful of being able to count on midfielder Martinelli. The number 8 felt his left knee in the first half of the first leg and had to be substituted at the interval. With an average of 4.5 balls recovered per game in the Brasileirao and 4.1 in the Copa Libertadores, he is a key player in Fluminense’s transition between attack and defence.

Suspended against Santos, left-back Guilherme Arana returns to the side. Meanwhile, Alisson, Matheus Reis and Cano (in transition) and John Kennedy (injured) are the absentees for the night.

Savarino is favourite for one of the wide positions, while veteran Hulk is hoping for better luck against Palmeiras’s trio of centre-backs.

Palmeiras possible starting lineup:

Carlos Miguel; Murilo, Gustavo Gomez, Barboza; Giay, Marlon Freitas, Andreas Pereira, Lucas Evangelista, Piquerez; Arias, Flaco Lopez. Coach: Abel Ferreira.

Fluminense possible starting lineup:

Fabio; Guga, Thiago Silva, Millan, Guilherme Arana; Nonato, Martinelli, Ganso; Cannobbio, Savarino, Hulk. Coach: Marcao.

We say: Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense

With the advantage in hand, Palmeiras can play with plenty of comfort. At home, we can indeed give a slight edge to the home side, given that Vitor Roque will have an able deputy if needed.

Fluminense have no alternative, although the late goal in the first leg has improved their outlook. With plenty of individual talent and a good deal of experience, Fluminense may even silence the Nubank Parque for spells, but it should not be enough to prevent Verdao from reaching their eighth continental final.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.