For anyone who has ever wondered what I do in the 24 hours before I turn my picks in, I've decided to give you a peek behind the curtain.  

Last night, I spent nine hours trying to figure out who's actually good this year and I came to the conclusion that the 49ers and Chiefs might be the only good teams in the NFL. Everyone else is average. And to be honest, I almost scratched the 49ers off my list because they almost blew a 20-point lead to the Commanders on Monday night. 

I was going to include the Vikings on my "good" list, but I don't trust their offense. I also thought about the Bills, but I don't trust their defense. 

Outside of Buffalo, Minnesota, San Francisco and Kansas City, every other team in the NFL has at least two losses. As we all know, the NFL's ultimate goal is total parity and I think the league might have finally achieved it. Every week is unpredictable. 

After spending nine hours making my list of good teams, I ate some Waffle Crisp. That took 45 minutes. I then spent four hours watching the Bears' new Hallmark movie, which is about 90 minutes long, so yes, that means I watched it 2.5 times. 

Since Hallmark started featuring NFL teams in their movies back in 2024, the team featured has averaged 13.5 wins per season in the year they get the Hallmark movie, so maybe I should also add the Bears to my good list. So there are now five good teams and everyone else is average. 

Speaking of average, let's get to my picks. 

All lines via DraftKings; All times ET

NFL Week 7 picks

Patriots (4-2) at Bears (4-2)

• Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon)

I don't usually pick the winner of a game based solely on the injury report, but I might have to do that here. I am fully expecting the Patriots injury report this week to look like a CVS receipt. If you've never seen a CVS receipt, they're roughly seven yards long and that's if you buy just one thing. If you buy more than one thing, your receipt will likely be as long as an entire football field. I'm pretty sure the only reason we're destroying the Amazon rainforest is so we can create more receipt paper for CVS. 

Anyway, I was watching New England play the Jets on Sunday, and during the game, the Patriots lost 60% of their starting offensive line with LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring), RG Ben Brown and RT Morgan Moses (ankle) all going down. As if that's not bad enough, Romeo Doubs also left the game with an injury. There have been so many injuries that I'm just going to bookmark the tweet below to keep track of who might not be playing this week. 

The problem for the Patriots is that this is a Thursday game, so there won't be very much time for anyone to heal. 

The other problem for New England is that the Bears' pass-rush has been surprisingly good this year, so this is not the game where you want 60% of your offensive line to either be hobbling around or not playing. The Bears have 17 sacks through six games, which is tied for the fifth most in the NFL, and now, they get to go up against a banged-up Patriots line. 

Drake Maye has looked spectacular over the past three weeks, but he's been playing with a lead. During this current three-game winning streak, the Patriots have only trailed for about 10 total game minutes out of 180 and Maye does well when he's playing with a lead. What's going to happen if the Patriots have to play from behind? Well, just go watch film of the Patriots' 35-6 loss to Jacksonville in Week 3 and you'll get a rough idea. 

I think the Bears will blitz Maye into oblivion and force him to make mistakes that we saw him make earlier in the season. He threw six interceptions through the first three weeks, but has only thrown one over the past three weeks. I think early-season Maye returns in this game. 

Not only do we have a beat-up Patriots team hitting the road on a short week, but they have to face an NFC North team. 

I'm not sure what the biggest mismatch is right now in the NFL, but I'm going to go ahead and say that it's the NFC North versus any team from the AFC East. Through six weeks, the NFC North has played five games against the AFC East and they've gone 4-1. Watching an AFC East team try to beat an NFC North team is like watching four baby fawns try to fend off a hungry bear. 

I think what I'm trying to say here is that there's no way I'm picking against the Bears. 

PICK: Bears (-3) 27-20 over Patriots

Bengals (3-2) at Ravens (4-2)

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

The Bengals might have just become the first NFL team ever to somehow lose on their bye week. They went into their off week tied for second place in the AFC North, and somehow, after not playing a game, they have dropped to last place. I blame the Browns. Things seem to get weird whenever the Browns are in first place and that's a world we live in right now. 

This game is between two teams that I'm still trying to figure out. Are the Bengals good? Are they kind of good? Are the Ravens for real? Can either team beat anyone with a winning record? 

The answers to these questions seem to be: Maybe, probably, still thinking about it and we'll find out this weekend.

These two teams both have a winning record, but they haven't really had to beat anyone to get there. The Bengals' three wins have come against three teams that have a combined record of 3-14 (.176). The Ravens' four wins have come against teams that have a combined record of 7-17 (.292). Every other AFC team with a winning record has beaten teams that have a combined winning percentage of at least .300, but not the Ravens and not the Bengals. 

That being said, the Bengals are about two plays away from being 5-0, so they might be good. As for the Ravens, they had a chance to take control of the AFC North in Week 6, but they blew a 10-0 lead to the Browns. There is no team better at blowing fourth-quarter leads than the Ravens, which is definitely not something you want to be the best at in the NFL. 

The upside for the Ravens is that they might be getting Lamar Jackson (ankle) back this week, but it's impossible to say for sure, because no one seems to know when he's going to return. 

• Before Baltimore's Week 5 game against the Falcons, Jesse Minter said Jackson' status was up in the air. "Just dealing with a little bit of an ankle. We'll kind of see where that shakes out." He didn't play. 
• Before Baltimore's Week 6 game against the Browns, there was a report that Jackson had a "realistic" chance to play. He didn't play. 
• Heading into this game, Minter is offering no hints. "I'd still put it in kind of the day-to-day thing."

Basically, Lamar might play, but he might not. 

Jackson has historically played well against the Bengals, but if he also tends to play differently when he's coming off an injury. Just look at last year: After missing three games with a hamstring injury, he was never really the same after that. That doesn't mean he's going to struggle if he plays on Sunday, but it does mean that it's hard to predict how he might look. 

Whether Jackson is on the field or not, this will be a huge test for the Bengals' revamped defense and I'm guessing the Ravens will be serving up a heavy load of Derrick Henry, especially if Jackson is on the field and can't quite run full speed. 

If you watched the Bengals' defense play last year, then you know they couldn't stop anyone, especially Henry. Imagine someone taking a snowplow through the Smurf Village and you'll have an idea of what it looked like last year when Henry was running against Cincinnati's defense. The Bengals are definitely better this year, but I won't know how much better until I see them play against the Ravens, and that's because the Ravens have the one offense in the NFL that the Bengals can't figure out. In the last six meetings between these two teams, the Ravens have gone 5-1 while averaging 29.2 points per game.

In the battle of the two quarterbacks who have dealt with a lot of injuries over the past few years, I'm going to take the one who's actually healthy. 

PICK: Bengals (+3) 27-24 over Ravens

Packers (4-2) at Lions (3-2)

• Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

The last time these two teams faced each other was on Thanksgiving 2025, which is almost fitting, because the Packers definitely have something to be thankful for this week: the return of Josh Jacobs. After spending the first six weeks of the season on the commissioner's exempt list, Jacobs is finally expected to return this week, and I will not be surprised if Matt LaFleur throws a small party to celebrate. 

• With Jacobs out of the lineup, the Packers have had the worst rushing attack in the NFL this year and that might actually be an understatement. 
• Through the first six weeks, they averaged just 59.8 yards per game on the ground, which not only ranks dead last in the NFL but is 17 yards BEHIND the next-closest team. 

Not a single running back on the roster has topped 50 rushing yards this season. In the 106-YEAR HISTORY of the NFL, there have only been three teams that have had a winning record through six games without any player topping 50 rushing yards in a single game, and the 2026 Packers are one of them. The last time it happened before this year was 1941. That's right, the Packers' rushing offense has somehow managed to set football back 85 years. 

The Packers have been winning in spite of their rushing attack and it's all thanks to a defense that's somehow surviving without Micah Parsons and a passing offense that suddenly looks unstoppable thanks to the emergence of Matthew Golden. 

At some point over the past month, something clicked with  Golden, because he's been one of the best receivers in the NFL over the past four weeks. He's topped 100 receiving yards in three of his past four games, which is pretty wild when you consider that he didn't top 90 yards A SINGLE TIME as a rookie last season. 

With Golden and Christian Watson, the Packers now have a legit duo and they have it just in time to face a Lions defense that has given up more passing yards this year than any other team. Bryce Young threw for 329 yards against this defense. GENO SMITH threw for 321. Jordan Love might throw for 400. 

The Packers are finally getting Jacobs back, but the irony is that this is the one week where they might not actually need him. 

PICK: Packers (+3) 31-24 over Lions

Chiefs (5-0) at Seahawks (3-3)

• Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

I don't know if anyone actually owns a calendar anymore, but if Kenneth Walker has one, there's a 100% chance that he circled this game on it when the schedule came out in May. And if he doesn't own one, I bet he bought one, just so he could circle this game. 

This is going to be the ultimate revenge game for Walker. After being voted Super Bowl MVP with Seattle last season, the Seahawks decided that they didn't need him anymore, so they kicked him to the curb. If I've learned one thing in my entire life, it's that you should never kick a Super Bowl MVP to the curb. 

Walker rushed for over 1,000 yards last season and he played so well that he took a lot of pressure off Sam Darnold. With Walker gone, the Seahawks have become more one-dimensional on offense with more reliance on the pass. The problem there is that Sam Darnold isn't quite good enough to carry an offense. 

• Through five starts, Darnold has thrown seven interceptions, which is the second-most in the NFL. And he actually leads the league in interceptions per game (1.4). Justin Herbert leads the NFL with eight interceptions, but he's played six games. Darnold has thrown seven picks in just five games, but that number should really be four games, since Darnold didn't even finish the first quarter in Week 1. 
• Darnold's QBR is 43.6, which ranks 26th in the NFL behind Deshaun Watson, Malik Willis and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels. 
• The Seahawks are 0-3 this season when they lose the turnover battle, which is a problem when your QB can't stop throwing interceptions. 

If the Seahawks had a time machine, I'm guessing they'd use it to go back to March and re-sign Walker. Sure, they could potentially use it on something that could change humanity forever, but if an NFL team had a time machine, they wouldn't use it to bring back a baby dinosaur or warn everyone that the Titanic is going to sink; they would use it to fix a mistake they made and letting Walker go appears to have been a mistake for Seattle. 

On the other hand, the Seahawks' decision has worked out well for the Chiefs. Walker leads the NFL with 665 rushing yards and the crazy part is that he ranks first in the league even though he's played one less game than everyone else because he's already had his bye. He's averaging 133 rushing yards per game this year and I feel like he might hit that in the first half against Seattle. The man is going to seek revenge. 

Walker is on a personal 15-game winning streak that dates back to last year: He won his final 10 games with the Seahawks, and he's won his first five with Kansas City. All the man does is win. 

I don't think the oddsmakers have watched a single minute of Chiefs' football this year because Kansas City has somehow opened as the underdog in this game. DO THEY EVEN KNOW ABOUT REVENGE GAMES?

Are they baiting me into taking the Chiefs? Probably. Am I going to fall for it? Absolutely. 

I will not be picking against Kenneth Walker in the Kenneth Walker revenge game. 

PICK: Chiefs (+2.5) 27-20 over Seahawks

Cowboys (2-4) at Eagles (2-4)

• Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

I'm not sure what qualifies as rock bottom in the NFL, but I'm pretty sure the entire NFC East is there right now. Heading into Week 7, the NFC East race has slowly turned into the football equivalent of the fourth Sharknado movie: None of it makes sense, I have no idea why I'm watching, but things have gotten so crazy that at this point, I have to stick around to see how everything ends.

If you're wondering how bad things have gotten in the NFC East, let me put it like this: It's now the first division in NFL history to go winless in consecutive weeks when all four teams played. This division has gone 0-6-2 over the past two weeks. 

The Commanders, Giants and Eagles are doing their best to GIVE the division to the Cowboys, but Dallas refuses to take it. 

• The Commanders lost their starting QB and although they got him back, he's currently playing with a dislocated elbow
• The Eagles likely won't have Jalen Hurts for the rest of the season
• The Giants lost Jaxson Dart for the year back in Week 2

That leaves the Cowboys. The division is set up for them to win it, but their defense is somehow worse than it was last year and their offense pulls off a magic trick by disappearing every other week. This is a team that returned almost every starter on offense, so I have no idea why they're struggling, but the good news for us is that someone has a theory about why the offense hasn't been good. 

When you have Braylon Edwards coming out of the woodwork to take a shot at you, that's probably a sign that you need to fix things.

For the Cowboys, this seems like the week to fix things. This should be a get-right game for a defense that will get to face Tanner McKee, and if the Cowboys' offense can score just 20 points, I feel like that will be enough to win. If the Cowboys can't win in this spot, they might want to just think about forfeiting the rest of the season.

PICK: Cowboys (-4.5) 23-17 over Eagles

NFL Week 7 picks: All the rest

Steelers 20-17 over Saints (in Paris)
49ers 34-24 over Falcons
Browns 20-13 over Titans
Vikings 19-16 over Colts
Jets 23-16 over Dolphins 
Panthers 23-20 over Buccaneers
Texans 24-17 over Giants
Broncos 19-16 over Cardinals
Rams 27-23 over Raiders
BYES: Bills, Chargers, Jaguars, Commanders

Last Week

Best pick: Texans over Jaguars. Last week, I predicted that the underdog Texans would go to London and beat the Jaguars by three, and guess what happened? The underdog Texans went to London and beat the Jaguars by exactly three points. 

The Jags' loss was so bad that poor Jaxson de Ville collapsed on the field after the game. 

If I had known this game was going to have such an emotional impact on poor Jaxson, I would have picked the Jags. I don't ever want to see a mascot's feelings get hurt. 

Worst pick: Falcons over Bears. I don't even need to cover my worst pick anymore because we all know what it's going to be. If you read my picks regularly, then you already know that I have no idea what I'm doing when it comes to picking the Bears. If you don't read my picks regularly, well, I have no idea what I'm doing when it comes to picking Bears games. Last week, I picked the Bears to beat the Falcons and that definitely didn't happen, which means I am now 1-5 picking Bears games this season. 

I'm going to watch that Bears' Hallmark movie 12 more times and I feel like that will probably help me with my Bears' picks going forward. Does that even make sense? No, but I'm willing to try anything at this point. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we've got six full weeks of information. Here's a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Team I'm 5-0 picking this year: Dolphins
Teams I'm 5-1 picking this year (Straight up): Patriots, Jaguars, Eagles, 49ers, Lions (4-1), Chiefs (4-1), Commanders (4-1-1)
My worst team this year (Straight up): Bears (1-5)

Every other team is somewhere in the middle. 

Picks record

• Straight up in Week 6: 6-8
• SU overall: 52-40-1
• Against the spread in Week 6: 4-10
• ATS overall: 38-53-2
  
• BREECHIGAMIS: 1