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The Blues, because of a second season outside the EFL, have this term lost 50 per cent of their central funding for their academy. Should they remain in the National League for a third campaign, this funding would disappear completely – along with their academy status under the Elite Player Performance Plan system.
While United, Lawrence says, are determined to return to the EFL as quickly as possible, they must prepare for all scenarios and their academy is central to this.
“With the EPPP academy funding, we received 100 per cent last season, 50 per cent this year and, if we are still in this league, stops altogether next season. The reason it stops is because the actual EPPP licence is effectively taken away, and what that means is that you can no longer run an elite EPPP Category 3 Academy in our case – you have to do something else.
“We have scholars present in the system, and we have a commitment to them to continue to educate them, but if we do not get promoted, we cannot run an elite academy – there's rules against it. Even if you say you will fund it yourself, you still cannot do it.
“So [sporting director] Marc Tierney and [academy manager] Andy Lowe are working up a contingency plan for me to review in the first instance before it goes to the ownership group.
“I think the most likely outcome, without wanting to second guess what the plan suggests, is that we would flip to an education model. Our Community Sports Trust already runs an education model, so there most likely will be some type of tie-up with them.
“There are clubs that are shutting down their elite academies in the EFL and moving to an education model, because financially the numbers work better, because every now and then you'll find a gem which you'll sell on and they'll go from here to there – but it's a more predictable income if you're running an education model.
“So that's my feel as to where we'll end up. We'll run it as close to an elite programme as we can do.”
Carlisle currently run a Category 3 academy in the EPPP system, but that would need to change if they remain in the National League for a third season (Image: Richard Parkes)
Lawrence hopes that, in such a scenario, Carlisle would still be able to retain some of their top young players because of United’s geographical position, and the commute that players would have elsewhere if they chose to leave.
The club, though, would be less protected when it comes to holding on to sought-after young talent if they lose their EPPP academy status. “We would lose the compensation rights which is banked in those players who we've been investing in for however many years they've been with us,” Lawrence said.
“Of course there's a risk that some of those players will move on to other clubs. That's something that we're aware of, and it's something that we can't do a great deal about.”
In the short term, how has this season's loss of 50 per cent of that central EPPP funding been managed by the club?
“There's been no cuts in terms of the operational expenditure of the academy, and the shortfall is made up by Tom, Patty and the wider ownership group,” said Lawrence. “It's as clear cut as that.
“Their support for the club is unwavering.
“We're all hoping that we can get promoted this year, and we can retain the elite academy, but we’re working on that contingency, which is the right thing to do. The guys will complete the plan, I'll study it, we'll get ownership approval, and then we'll put it in the top drawer…and hopefully we can shred it in mid-April or the beginning of May.”
There are certain implications for funding when it comes to United’s much-admired Community Sports Trust too.
“The funding that James Tose and the CST can draw down is less than when you're in the EFL,” said Lawrence. “James is across the details on that, I'm not. But it's something that we're working together on to support each other, so it may be that with the academy – if we do not get promoted – that the CST assist with providing some of the education, and maybe some of the coaching side of things. I'm not sure, but there'll be a crossover there.
“Tom and Patty continue to support the CST to a significant level as well.”
Another key part of United’s long-term strategy has been the Sheepmount training ground scheme. This was an early and significant plank of the Piataks’ vision for the club, yet there have been few signs of recent progress on United’s pursuit of a 99-year lease and wider approval for a major development there.
The long-term outcome of United's Sheepmount project remains unclear (Image: News & Star)
The language on the project has also become more conditional of late than before. Lawrence acknowledges that the pace of things in the background has slowed, in part due to the recent pending status of his appointment, but he is yet to get fully into the detail of the scheme at this early stage in his tenure as CEO.
“The training ground is something I'm getting up to speed on,” he said. “I've met with Julie Minns MP to discuss various things, and the training ground came up. I've also met with a gentleman who's been advising the football club on how best to progress it.
“The development of a training facility is something that Tom and Patty are keen for me to get across. But my priority has been putting in place the foundational architecture and documentation processes and procedures at the club, to make sure that the business is operating the way I think it needs to operate, which we're now moving to execution.
“So I will [soon] have a bit more time to get across the training ground [subject], but it still remains a strategic ambition to create the environment and the facilities for the first team to excel, together with the academy and the women's team as well.
“It certainly hasn't been withdrawn or canned. It's on my to-do list, but it's 14th or 15th on the priority list. It's going to take a little bit of time before I can escalate it.”
Is the scheme progressing behind the scenes, even as Lawrence takes time to get up to speed on it?
“I think it's slowed down its progression, just waiting for me to come in,” he said. “The train's pulled into the station, I've got on and we're about to set off, but I can't say yet when we'll get to the destination.”
The wider question of the importance of Carlisle’s return to the EFL at the earliest possible opportunity was put to Lawrence.
He said: “It's critical from the club's and the ownership's ambition. We do not want to be in the National League. It's critical because we want to have an elite academy and we need to be in the EFL to achieve that, and it's critical from our strategic objectives, from the football point of view.
“We want to have a successful winning football team.
“From the financial point of view, the average loss in the National League is around £1.5m, the average loss in League Two is around £2.5m, the average in League One is between £5m+ and in the Championship it's around £20m.
“So from a business point of view, going up through the leagues is not necessarily going to help us. But from a football objective point of view, absolutely we want to get through this league.
“I think Carlisle is slightly different to most average football clubs within all of those leagues I mentioned. We have around 7,400 supporters, average, at home games in a season. If we go into Leagues One and Two, I think we'll get more supporters coming, but also we'll have a larger away following. So I think for us it would be financially beneficial to be out of the league.”
Another hot topic this season in the National League is the DAZN broadcasting deal and its continued implications for fans in terms of changed kick-off times. The Boreham Wood chairman Danny Hunter has come out more than once in heavily criticising the situation, arguing the need for change.
Hunter is also frustrated that few other club executives appear to be ready to join him on the barricades on the subject. What is Lawrence’s view?
“I think what Danny Hunter has said resonates with supporters and I understand where he's coming from when we've got these odd kick-off times,” he said.
Boreham Wood's Danny Hunter has been a vocal critic of the National League's broadcasting deal with DAZN (Image: PA)
“What I would say with my National League board director hat on is that DAZN have been a supportive partner. They contribute a very significant amount of money to the National League and in order to help accommodate some of their requests, I don't think it's unreasonable that games are moved around to now enable them to monetise them to help the monies flow back into the league.
“Now, some people will talk about something akin to iFollow that we used to have in the EFL where there was a central streaming platform and that seemed to work quite well. And other people say, well, we should just get rid of DAZN and then each club can stream their own games and monetise it.
“But the reality is that, while we could do it, for the smaller clubs it's going to be too onerous in terms of the infrastructure requirements. So I think a centralised deal is the right way to go.
“I think that DAZN have helped very significantly with the finances of the National League which flows down to member clubs.
“I completely understand the point Danny Hunter is making and there are obviously some scheduling issues where getting back from away games has been problematic. So he's right to make that point.
“But what I've always said to Danny and others is – what is their alternative proposal? If we're not going to have DAZN, what are we going to do? And if we are going to have DAZN what is the answer to it?”
Lawrence says he sympathises with Hunter’s view but feels the current deal is the best that is within the league’s grasp. Is there not, though, at least a middle ground where the benefits of the DAZN partnership can be retained but Carlisle fans are not, for instance, sent to Worthing for a 5.30pm kick-off in January?
“I think the deal that is in place at the time and the scheduling that we have is the middle ground,” said Lawrence. “It's not what many supporters would want and I completely understand that.
“But I think that the key players at the National League have done their best to accommodate what is a very important partner whilst being mindful of the impact on supporters. My feeling is that they've negotiated as best they can with the cards they've got. So whilst I accept that it's sub-optimal, it is what we've got.”
Carlisle’s own desire is to leave behind the National League and all its considerations, yet their attempt to do so has found a rocky path so far. Why, ultimately, should fans believe in the immediate and long-term future at Brunton Park?
Carlisle United CEO Tom Lawrence (Image: Richard Parkes)
“I think there's so many positives at Carlisle,” Lawrence said. “I understand the frustrations of supporters who have lived through the recent decline through the leagues, and even though last year was good in points, it was ultimately still unsuccessful.
“I think we've got everything in place to mount a promotion challenge this season, albeit most likely through the play-offs, and I think once we do exit this league, we have great infrastructure and we've got all our plans and processes in place.
“We're well placed to keep going through the leagues, and the ownership is keen for us to plough through the leagues, so that's what we're all aiming for.
“I think it's good that supporters have bared with us whilst we've had a start to the season which was below where we hoped we would be. I really feel that we are well placed to kick on from here and we've got some great players. We've got an exciting style of play. We're creating lots of chances and the adaptation that Rob's just brought in seems to be working well.
“So I think it's time for the football to catch up with everything else across the business and it's ready to take off.”