ESPN college football analyst Josh Pate believes USC wants to fire head coach Lincoln Riley after Saturday’s 24-7 loss to Wisconsin, and he sees a buyout reported at roughly $70 million as the main obstacle keeping the fifth-year coach in Los Angeles.

Pate stopped short of predicting a firing on his show, but his read was clear: “I think they want to. I think the buyout thing is maybe or maybe not prohibitive, but that’s kind of what stands in the way.”

Why would USC fire Lincoln Riley?

Pate questioned how much backing Riley has left with the people who would make that call.

“I don’t think Lincoln Riley has a ton of supporters at USC,” Pate said on Josh Pate’s College Football Show. “I’m talking about inside the walls of the athletic department, the folks that matter.”

He also called 2026 the Trojans’ best chance to break through in the conference. “This was the year in the Big Ten,” Pate said.

Instead, USC scored seven points in Madison, the fewest by any Riley-coached team, and finished with minus-17 rushing yards. Riley owned it afterward. “Just flat-out didn’t play good enough on all three sides of the football. Didn’t coach good enough either,” Riley said.

Pate went further and questioned the effort. “Watching USC last night was like watching a team that had already been eliminated from playoff contention. Except they weren’t,” he said. “It’s an execution thing, but it’s also an effort thing. It’s just not there.”

He also highlighted Wisconsin running back Bryan Jackson II, who transferred from USC in January and scored a go-ahead touchdown before halftime against his former team. “Gritty ain’t pretty,” Jackson said. “We played the harder football game, brought it to them and they can’t really do nothing with us. It’s just two different types of football.”

Lincoln Riley’s $70 million buyout

USC hasn’t made Riley’s contract public. CBS Sports’ Matt Zenitz reported in September that industry sources cautioned against assuming the roughly $70 million figure rules out a change at a private school with deep-pocketed supporters.

USC president Beong-Soo Kim didn’t engage on the subject this month. “We’re not thinking about that,” Kim said. “We are laser-focused on the next game, and then the game after that.”

Pate sees a negotiated exit as a possible path. “If there’s a mutual parting of ways that could happen with a reduced buyout, that sort of thing happens sometimes,” he said.

He also expects other programs to pursue the Muleshoe, Texas, native, pointing to rumblings around TCU and Texas Tech and to Baylor, which fired Dave Aranda on Sunday after a 25-24 loss to Kansas. “Don’t think for a second there’s not a market for him,” Pate said.

What comes next for USC?

The Trojans (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) fell out of the AP Top 25 on Sunday, and Riley is 41-20 at USC with a 5-15 record against ranked opponents.

Pate still views the job as one of the sport’s best if it opens. “That roster right now is a loaded young roster,” he said. “They’re not going to stop acquiring talent.”

USC hosts No. 2 Ohio State at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday at the Coliseum, then faces No. 4 Indiana and Maryland before closing the regular season against No. 7 UCLA.