With just two points separating Jorge Martin and Marc Marquez heading into the final five rounds of the MotoGP World Championship, the title fight is poised on a knife-edge. Unlike many who expect Ducati to regain control after Mandalika, Alex Marquez has issued a stark warning to his brother Marc: three circuits—Phillip Island, Losail, and Portimão—could decisively tip the scales in Aprilia’s favor. This forecast is particularly striking given Marc Marquez’s formidable record in Australia, making the upcoming battles even more intriguing.

After 17 rounds, Jorge Martin clings to a narrow two-point lead over Marc Marquez, while Marco Bezzecchi lurks 46 points behind his Aprilia teammate, still mathematically in contention. Alex Marquez believes the calendar itself could become Aprilia’s greatest ally in the title race. “The fight for the championship will be very open, especially with key circuits coming up like Australia, Qatar, and Portimão, where Aprilia can be very strong. Marc will have to showcase his usual talents,” Alex stated emphatically.

Mandalika was expected to be a breakthrough venue for Aprilia, with the track’s characteristics and Michelin’s tyre choices seemingly favoring the RS-GP. The race confirmed Aprilia’s technical superiority with a historic 1-2-3-4 finish. However, the championship standings tell a different story. Marc Marquez secured the Sprint victory after an incident between Bezzecchi and Raul Fernandez, and Jorge Martin struggled with front tyre pressure issues, finishing sixth. Both Martin and Marquez scored 22 points across the weekend, meaning Aprilia’s dominance on track did not translate into a championship advantage—an outcome that could have serious repercussions in the closing stages.

Phillip Island looms as the next critical test. Known for its long, fast corners demanding exceptional speed and stability, the circuit theoretically suits the Aprilia RS-GP’s strengths. Yet, it is also Marc Marquez’s personal playground, boasting five wins across all categories, including four in MotoGP. His last triumph came in 2024 on the Ducati GP23 with Gresini, underscoring the clash between machine characteristics and rider prowess. Notably, Marquez missed the 2025 Australian GP due to injury, when Raul Fernandez claimed victory—adding another layer of unpredictability.

Alex Marquez extends his caution to Losail in Qatar and Portimão in Portugal. While these circuits have differing profiles, Alex believes Aprilia’s potential is significant there as well. His analysis doesn’t suggest Ducati will be outclassed outright but signals that the Italian manufacturer can no longer rely on a guaranteed technical edge. The closing phase of 2025 already hinted at this shift: without Marquez, Aprilia secured three wins in four races through Fernandez and Bezzecchi, with Alex himself halting their streak in Malaysia aboard his Ducati GP24. Aprilia’s rise is not a recent fluke but part of a sustained momentum.

The crucial question Alex Marquez raises is whether Marc’s unmatched experience, resilience, and racecraft can offset Aprilia’s emerging threat. Mandalika demonstrated Marc’s ability to salvage points under pressure, but the margin between salvaging and winning a title is razor-thin. Every sprint, every qualifying session, and every error will weigh heavily. And with Bezzecchi still mathematically alive, the title equation remains complex.

Alex does not forecast defeat for his brother but highlights the reality that three of the final five circuits could provide Aprilia with the perfect platform to seize control. After Mandalika, Marc Marquez faces not only Jorge Martin but also a calendar that his own brother predicts may increasingly favour his rivals. The question now is whether the Qatar GP will even take place—adding yet another twist to an already volatile championship battle.