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Where Chelsea are overperforming this season and why they have Morgan Rogers to thank

Chelsea are one of the highest-scoring teams in the Premier League this season, but perhaps they should not be.

Under Xabi Alonso, the Blues have managed to score 17 goals in seven games. Only Manchester City (19) and Brighton & Hove Albion (23) have scored more goals.

With a frontline of Morgan Rogers, Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro, Chelsea have one of the best attacks in the league. Considering that, the above will not come as a surprise to many.

However, for as good as that trio are, they have had to convert some extremely difficult chances. Whether they can continue to do that throughout the rest of the season remains to be seen.

Chelsea are the Premier League’s biggest overperformers for xG

According to WhoScored, Chelsea are overperforming their xG by 5.22 in the Premier League this season! It is the biggest overperformance in the division.

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In effect, it means Alonso’s side have been scoring from chances that do not usually result in a goal. Rogers is one big reason for the Blues’ overperformance.

He has an xG of 2.04 but has scored four goals in total, giving him an xG difference of 1.96. Looking back at that fantastic goal Rogers scored against Arsenal, it had an xG value of just 0.02, as per FotMob, which really adds context.

After Rogers, Jordan Henderson is the next highest on Chelsea’s individual list of xG overperformers. The midfielder has scored two goals in the current campaign, which both came against Bournemouth, despite having an xG of just 0.36.

Over the course of the season, this does not look sustainable at all. Right now, it is hard to gauge just how good Alonso’s system is at creating chances. Evidently, a lot of Chelsea’s goals have come from moments of individual brilliance and quality.

For now, it is working, while Chelsea have also shown signs of improvement defensively, suggesting that there is potential for this team to become a well-balanced one in the future. Following their first Premier League clean sheet in nine months, Henderson lauded the way Chelsea defended against Everton last weekend.

What exactly are Xabi Alonso’s Chelsea? We are still trying to find out and may not have a complete picture for a while.

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