Just 10 games into the 2026-27 campaign, with Manchester City falling to defeat at Nottingham Forest, Arsenal are looking very likely indeed to retain their Premier League title.

We are only a week into November, but the Premier League is already looking like it could be a one-horse race.

It is obviously far too early to declare for certain that nobody can challenge Arsenal, but with the reigning champions already six points clear of Manchester City after making their joint-best ever start to a Premier League campaign, there is a quickly increasing chance that they win it at a canter.

On Saturday afternoon, Arsenal produced a below-par performance at home to newly promoted Hull City but still ground their stubborn opponents down and eventually found a winner through captain Martin Ødegaard’s second-half strike. Crucially, at the other end of the pitch, they were once again barely troubled and all it needed was a single goal. It was their fourth 1-0 win in 10 Premier League games so far this season.

Arsenal’s consummate, controlled and dominant performance was entirely typical of them – even if they weren’t at their best in attack, they were rarely troubled at the back – and it came in stark contrast to the chaos, disjointedness and unconvincing nature of City’s display at Nottingham Forest that followed shortly after.

City kicked off just over half an hour after Arsenal had won to move six points clear at the top of the table, but it was within 18 minutes of their game starting that the title race started to look like it might be done.

Forest scored twice in that time to put City 2-0 down earlier than they have been in any Premier League game since November 2019 (13th minute away to Liverpool). City fought hard to try and find a way back into the game and were much improved after the break, when Rayan Cherki gave them some hope by pulling a goal back, but Liam Delap added another for Forest to secure the win. The result means City have now lost three games in a row, becoming just the second team in English top-flight history – after Sheffield Wednesday in 1904-05 – to win their first seven games of a season and then lose their next three.

Arsenal, meanwhile, did not spiral after their only negative result of the season so far, responding to a 3-0 defeat at Brighton in September with five straight Premier League wins. They have now won nine of their from 10 games so far in 2026-27, in the process equalling their best ever total after 10 games of 27 points (also 2022-23).

Including Arsenal in four seasons ago, there are only six previous examples of a team picking up at least 27 points from their first 10 games of a Premier League season. Four of them have gone on to win the league, and the other two have finished as runners-up. The two who finished second, though, were Newcastle in 1995-96, who famously capitulated with Manchester United hot on their tails, and Arsenal in 2022-23, who were a very different side to the one they now are. Few expect Arsenal to fall apart this time around, and there may not even be a rival waiting to take advantage of any slip.

According to the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal had a 71.3% chance of winning the title before their game kicked off, and that only increased to 71.9% with the win over Hull. The supercomputer clearly – and understandably – fully expected Arsenal to win.

But the City result was far more consequential. After that defeat, Arsenal’s title chances jumped up to 74.9%. City are now given just a 14.3% chance of clawing their way back to win the title.

Of course, there are other teams up there, and a very impressive Brighton shouldn’t be completely disregarded, but their title chances of 6.2% – in the eyes of the supercomputer – is a reflection of their status as outsiders.

The chances of Brighton maintaining their current pace at the top of the table alongside a Europa League campaign is one thing; they also need Arsenal to start slipping up a lot more.

But while Arsenal are this solid at the back, there appears little chance that anyone can catch them. They have the best defence in the Premier League this season (five goals conceded in 10 games) and have also allowed their opponents by far the lowest expected goals (7.6 xG).

City may yet face a points deduction after they were found guilty of breaches of the Premier League’s financial rules, though they deny any wrongdoing and plan to appeal, so that process could drag on. For now, we should assume their points will remain intact this season.

But after their damaging defeat to Forest on Saturday, there may be no way back for them anyway. The Premier League title is Arsenal’s to lose.

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