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It's time for another edition of our Behind The Numbers series here at FCS Football Central.
Each week, we will highlight a couple of marquee national matchups, using success rate to get a deeper look than what the final score may tell you about what really happened in the game. We will take a look at the most dominant teams of the week, which teams outplayed their opponent but made too many mistakes to win the game, and which teams got outplayed but still escaped with a win.
Success rate takes out a lot of the underlying factors of a game and strictly tells you how well a team played down-to-down. While outliers can swing an individual game, success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. A play is "successful" if 50% of the yards needed are gained on first down, 70% are gained on second down, and 100% are gained on third or fourth down.
The average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.
We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend's FCS football action in Week 9.
South Dakota State 31, South Dakota 21
Tennessee Tech 24, ETSU 17
UAlbany 45, Campbell 35
Stephen F. Austin 37, Houston Christian 6
In this section, we will highlight the teams that were the most dominant in success-rate margin (OFF SR-DEF SR). This will highlight which teams truly dominated, even if the final score hides what really happened. Games against non-Division I opponents were excluded.
Montana State really silenced some of the narratives surrounding this team. They were up 41-0 on Cal Poly with 10 minutes to go in the second quarter. Montana State's defense forced a punt or turnover on Cal Poly's first six drives of the game, while also doing it on nine of their 10 total drives. Cal Poly only had 52 total yards on its first 23 plays. The Bobcats rolled up 299 rushing yards on 7.0 yards per carry, continuing their success on the ground.
Incarnate Word scored 66 points, while holding Northwestern State to only 2.9 yards per play and a 19% success rate. Towson finally got its first win of the season, dominating Hampton in a 44-13 win. The Tigers held the Pirates to 47 rushing yards on 23 carries, while their offense finished with 334 rushing yards on 8.4 yards per carry.
Alcorn State had the best offensive efficiency in the entire country with a 64.4% success rate in a win over Mississippi Valley State. Central Connecticut State took full control of the NEC race with a dominant win over Robert Morris. The Blue Devils suffocated the Colonials, holding them to -9 rushing yards.
South Carolina State finally found the defensive dominance that we saw earlier this season, holding Morgan State to -12 rushing yards and 3.1 yards per play. Colgate rebounded with over 500 yards of total offense, averaging 6.6 yards per play in a 37-0 shutout victory over William & Mary. The Tribe finished with only 142 yards of total offense.
Abilene Christian remains undefeated in UAC play and is starting to look like that scary team we've seen over the past two seasons. The Wildcats forced five turnovers, rolled up 500 yards of total offense, and had a 60% rushing success rate against West Georgia.
Lamar continued to roll; despite the final score, the Cardinals were up 42-9 at the end of the third quarter. It was the first loss at home for UTRGV, which was held to a 21% success rate. In a game with major postseason implications, Weber State dominated UC Davis. The Wildcats had 500 yards of total offense, averaging 7 yards per play. The defense held the Aggies to a 30% success rate.
Interestingly, Tarleton State makes this section despite only winning 28-24 against Eastern Kentucky. The Texans had an elite offensive success rate of 50%, finishing with nearly 600 yards of total offense, only punting twice, and somehow only scoring 28 points. The Texans turned the ball over three times, all deep inside EKU territory, including once at the goal line. Defensively, Tarleton State only allowed a 32% success rate, but allowed too many explosive plays. The Texans will need to be much sharper moving forward.
Each week, this section will highlight teams that won the success rate battle but still lost the game. They outperformed their opponent down-to-down, but lost because of turnovers, penalties, special teams, or explosive plays.
It was a tale of two halves in Youngstown State's comeback win over North Dakota. The Fighting Hawks started this game on fire offensively. On its first five full drives of the game, North Dakota scored four TDs and had a field goal blocked. The Fighting Hawks had 51 plays on these five drives for 341 yards, averaging 6.7 yards per play.
The Fighting Hawks punted on their next three drives, which were all answered by Youngstown State scores. Those three drives had a combined 14 plays for 41 yards, which is only 2.9 yards per play. The craziest part is that North Dakota still rushed for 4.6 yards per carry on those drives, but just abandoned the running game, and the passing game couldn't get anything going.
The Magic City Classic lived up to its name, offering one of the most exciting games of the weekend. This game was incredibly even in pretty much every metric you can analyze. The Alabama State offense was slightly more consistent, while Alabama A&M was more explosive and effective in key moments. Alabama State missed a crucial field goal attempt, while Alabama A&M made its attempt; plus, the Hornets had two costly turnovers.