AFC Ajax welcome AZ Alkmaar to the Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam for an Eredivisie matchday 11 fixture on Saturday.

Ajax are second on 21 points after beating Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 last weekend, three behind leaders Feyenoord, while AZ are a point further back on 20 and level with PSV Eindhoven and Twente.

The head-to-head favours the visitors, who have not lost to Ajax in 11 meetings since a 2-0 KNVB Cup semi-final defeat on March 3, 2022, and who won 6-0 in the cup round of 16 in Alkmaar on January 14, a result that matched Ajax’s heaviest defeat in professional football.

Match preview

Michel Sanchez took charge on June 2 after Ajax finished fifth on the Eredivisie table with 56 points, the club’s joint-lowest total since 1962, and De Godenzonen have won six, drawn three and lost one of their 10 league games under him.

All five of their away league games have been won, at PEC Zwolle (2-0), Telstar (4-0), Fortuna Sittard (5-1), Groningen (5-2) and Sparta (2-1), whereas the Arena has produced one win, three draws and a 3-1 defeat to PSV Eindhoven.

The home problem is defensive, with Ajax conceding in all five league games at the Arena, nine goals in total against four away from home, including 2-2 draws with Heerenveen and Excelsior.

Ajax went three games without a win, finishing with a 2-1 defeat at Hajduk Split in the Conference League on October 15, but have since won at Groningen, against Atalanta and at Sparta, scoring nine goals and conceding three.

Julian Brandt has six league goals and two assists and created both first-half goals at Sparta, while Nigerian striker Tolu Arokodare, on loan from Wolverhampton Wanderers, has five league goals after scoring in first-half stoppage time in Rotterdam.

Abdellah Ouazane, 17, scored Ajax’s opener at Sparta in the 22nd minute after also scoring against Atalanta, and Daley Blind made his first appearance since a back injury in mid-August as a late substitute.

Leeroy Echteld took over from the sacked Maarten Martens in January, days after the 6-0 win over Ajax, and was handed a contract running to 2028 after AZ won the KNVB Cup.

The Kaasboeren have won six, drawn two and lost two of their 10 league games, scoring 20 goals and conceding 12, which leaves them fifth on goal difference at level points with PSV Eindhoven and Twente.

AZ have taken one point from their last three league games, losing 2-0 at Feyenoord on October 10, drawing 2-2 at Cambuur on October 18 after Mexx Meerdink’s 83rd-minute penalty and losing 2-0 at home to Twente on October 25.

Sondre Orjasaeter put Twente ahead in the 84th minute, and although Daouda Weidmann was later sent off for a second yellow card, Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink made it 2-0 in stoppage time.

Away from home in the league AZ have won at Utrecht (4-1), Fortuna Sittard (2-0) and Heerenveen (3-2), drawn at Cambuur and lost at Feyenoord.

In the Europa League they followed a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland with a 2-1 home win over Hapoel Be’er Sheva and a 4-0 win at Ararat-Armenia on October 22, where Weslley Patati scored twice.

Ajax Eredivisie form:

Ajax form (all competitions):

AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie form:

AZ Alkmaar form (all competitions):

Team News

For Ajax, Kasper Dolberg is the longest-term absentee after a successful operation on the knee injury he suffered in training with Denmark during the October international break.

Caio Henrique and Anton Gaaei are not expected back until after the international break, according to Michel Sanchez, while Simon Adingra and Oliver Edvardsen are also out.

Steven Berghuis has been out since leaving the win over Willem II on September 15, and Sanchez said he expects him to be available against AZ.

Blind came off the bench at Sparta after a back injury that had sidelined him since mid-August, and Joeri Heerkens was among the substitutes.

Davy Klaassen replaced Viktor Tsygankov at half-time at Sparta, Oscar Gloukh came on for Ouazane in the 61st minute, and Marcos Leonardo was an unused substitute.

For the visitors, Ayoub Oufkir is suspended for the trip to Amsterdam after a yellow card in the 70th minute of the Twente defeat, having come on as a substitute in the 63rd.

Wouter Goes missed the Twente game because he was not match-fit, with Wesley Hoedt and Lewis Schouten starting in central defence, and his availability for Saturday is unclear.

Kees Smit has trained again after an injury picked up on Jong Oranje duty.

Mexx Meerdink has four league goals, Ro-Zangelo Daal has five by our count, and the Kaasboeren have kept three clean sheets in 10 league games.

Ajax possible starting lineup:

Ter Stegen; Rosa, Kehrer, Janse, Baas; Mokio, Amrabat, Brandt; Tsygankov, Arokodare, Ouazane

AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:

De Busser; Dijkstra, Schouten, Hoedt, Chavez; Kwakman, Koopmeiners; Patati, Byskov, Daal; Meerdink

We say: Ajax 2-1 AZ Alkmaar

Ajax are the more dangerous side right now, with 29 league goals in 10 games against 20 for AZ, and nine goals in their last three matches across competitions.

AZ have failed to score in two of their last three league games and taken one point from nine, with Saturday their fifth match in 17 days.

The case for AZ rests on that 11-meeting unbeaten run and on Ajax conceding in every home league game, which is why this forecast gives the visitors a goal through Meerdink or Patati even without Oufkir.

The comparison with January is weaker than it looks, because the Ajax that lost 6-0 had Fred Grim on the touchline and Vitezslav Jaros in goal, whereas this team has Michel Sanchez, Marc-Andre ter Stegen and summer signings Brandt and Arokodare.

With Arokodare in form, Brandt supplying the passes and AZ short of Oufkir and possibly Goes, Ajax should score twice, and a narrow home win would be their first against AZ since March 3, 2022.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.