Retour
It appears the fittest have finally found a way to survive in the SEC.
In all four conference games this past Saturday where a ranked conference team was in action, the lesser or unranked team lost. And it wasn’t close.
No. 12 Ole Miss beat Auburn by 30 points. No. 11 Texas held a 28-point margin over Mississippi State. No. 23 Missouri dropped Arkansas by 24, and No. 3 Georgia topped No. 17 Florida by 19. In the lone unranked matchup, South Carolina continued trending upward, beating Oklahoma by 17.
Just two one-loss teams remain — Georgia and Kentucky. Only one two-loss team, Florida, was dispatched from the SEC pack, leaving LSU among six in that grouping.
As the home stretch of LSU’s race to the College Football Playoff commences, those eight teams — along with a couple of three-loss long shots — are in competition for a handful of SEC bids.
Lane Kiffin and LSU have No. 9 Alabama, No. 10 Texas, No. 16 Tennessee and Arkansas standing in the way. Here’s how the Tigers’ CFP path compares to their SEC foes.
Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC): at Ole Miss, vs. Missouri, at South Carolina, vs. Georgia Tech
Kentucky (7-1, 5-1): at Tennessee, vs. Florida, at Missouri, vs. Louisville
It’s possible either team could suffer a Humpty Dumpty-like fall, because the SEC has been such a coin-flip league.
Georgia, which lost at home to Auburn, recovered by stuffing Florida rusher Jadan Baugh (38 yards) and flustering a pair of young quarterbacks. Now the Bulldogs head to Ole Miss to face Trinidad Chambliss, who was shaky in a three-pick outing versus Texas but rediscovered his magic in a runaway against Auburn.
Missouri wasn’t competitive against Ole Miss in a 31-3 loss two weeks ago but just hammered Florida, a team that routed Ole Miss earlier this season.
Kentucky has to play Tennessee in Neyland Stadium, just like LSU. The Volunteers just lost by three at South Carolina, but they beat Alabama decisively at home. And the Wildcats also have to travel to Missouri.
Maybe Georgia and Kentucky catch these teams on the right Saturdays and glide to the SEC title game. Maybe they don’t and fall back to LSU and the rest.
Tennessee (6-2, 3-2): vs. Kentucky, at Texas A&M, vs. LSU, at Vanderbilt
Alabama (6-2, 4-2): at LSU, at Vanderbilt, vs. Chattanooga, vs. Auburn
Texas (6-2, 3-2): at Missouri, at LSU, vs. Arkansas, at Texas A&M
LSU, sitting at 3-2 in conference play, has a chance to beat a trio of two-loss SEC squads and make clear a path to the CFP.
But the Tigers really do need to take care of business.
Aside from LSU, Tennessee’s pairing of Texas A&M and Vandy has a combined 1-9 record in conference. Alabama follows LSU with a duo of Vandy and Auburn that is 2-9. Texas’ twosome of Texas A&M and Arkansas is 2-8.
Much could be accomplished this weekend if LSU beats Alabama, Kentucky tops Tennessee and Missouri upends Texas. LSU would have a chance to essentially eliminate Texas and Tennessee in consecutive weeks.
If LSU loses to Alabama, there’s still a path with a head-to-head advantage over Texas and Tennessee. But the Tigers might still need losses elsewhere to box out the rest.
Ole Miss (6-2, 4-2): vs. Georgia, at Oklahoma, vs. Wofford, vs. Mississippi State.
Missouri (6-2, 3-2): vs. Texas, at Georgia, vs. Kentucky, vs. Oklahoma
If Kentucky and Georgia stay on course, and LSU falters against Alabama, the Tigers may need Ole Miss and Missouri to fall.
If LSU can take care of Texas on Nov. 14, it might be advantageous to flip Missouri-Texas to a Texas win so the other Tigers are already spinning downward, especially since Missouri still has Georgia and Kentucky on the schedule.
The Bulldogs also have a chance to down Ole Miss, but there’s then a question of who will deliver the Rebels’ fourth loss with their head-to-head advantage over three-loss LSU.
Oklahoma (4-4, 2-3) has looked less than impressive outside of its Red River Rivalry win over Texas. Mississippi State is currently riding with former LSU quarterback AJ Swann behind center with Kamario Taylor out.
Maybe LSU would be better off if Ole Miss touched off a Georgia slide, while Ole Miss and Kentucky won out to add some shine to the Tigers’ two- or three-loss resume.
South Carolina (5-3, 3-3): vs. Texas A&M, at Arkansas, vs. Georgia, at Clemson
Florida (5-3, 3-3): vs. Oklahoma, at Kentucky, vs. Vanderbilt, at Florida State
Given how much parity there has been in the SEC and nationwide, it’s unlikely this pair survives a four-week elimination challenge. But it can’t be ruled out completely.
LaNorris Sellers, one of the best scramblers in the nation with 605 rushing yards, has 1,016 passing yards and 10 touchdowns in four games. With Texas A&M and Arkansas next, the Gamecocks could be 7-3 when they host Georgia.
It’s hard to believe Florida will develop enough consistency to win four straight, but the Gators would have wins over Ole Miss, Texas and Kentucky if they do.
Simply put, LSU needs this pair to slip up once so they aren’t a threat in pursuit.