Kimi Antonelli is on the cusp of becoming Formula 1’s youngest-ever world champion – and he could win the 2026 drivers’ title this weekend at the United States Grand Prix in Austin.

The 20-year-old has made a mockery of the pre-season predictions which put his Mercedes teammate George Russell as the title favourite, with eight grand prix victories and 14 podiums in total.

Antonelli currently has a 102-point lead over Russell with six rounds (and no sprint races) remaining this season, assuming F1 fulfils its end-of-season schedule with Qatar and Abu Dhabi. If those races can’t take place due to the conflict in the Middle East, a one-off round would conclude the campaign in Imola.

Antonelli is also aiming to become the sport’s youngest world champion in its 76-year history. The current holder of this accolade is Sebastian Vettel, who won his first championship in 2010 at 23 years and 134 days. The Italian would also become only the third-ever driver – after Lewis Hamilton and Jacques Villeneuve – to win the championship in just his second season.

Only a race victory will do it

Antonelli has a 102-point lead over second-placed Russell, with 150 points left on the table this season. After this round in Austin, there will be 125 points left to play for.

As such, to win the title at the Circuit of the Americas, Antonelli needs to increase his lead by 23 points. Therefore, at a minimum, Antonelli must win the grand prix (25 points) on Sunday. If he doesn’t, he cannot win the championship in Austin.

If he does win the race, only Russell finishing ninth or lower and Lewis Hamilton (who trails the Italian by 111 points) finishing fifth or lower would hand Antonelli the title this weekend.

If these three scenarios do not take place, it’s on to the Mexico City Grand Prix on 1 November.

Max Verstappen (119 points behind), Charles Leclerc (125) and Lando Norris (139) are all mathematically still in contention, but an Antonelli win would wipe them off the radar no matter what on Sunday.

Top-10 - Driver standings ahead of US Grand Prix

1. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) - 340 points

2. George Russell (Mercedes) - 238 points

3. Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) - 229 points

4. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) - 221 points

5. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) - 215 points

6. Lando Norris (McLaren) - 201 points

7. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) - 138 points

8. Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls) - 97 points

9. Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls) - 75 points

10. Pierre Gasly (Alpine) - 41 points