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How hurt is Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin?
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will have to grapple with that question as it assesses not only whether to include Ohio State in the field but where to seed the Buckeyes.
Sayin, a Heisman Trophy finalist a season ago, suffered an injury in the fourth quarter of Ohio State's win over Indiana. Sayin left the game and returned to the sideline wearing a sling. Days after the injury, speculation is rampant and details are scarce on the injury specifics and expected recovery time.
On Monday night, Ohio State coach Ryan Day reiterated that Sayin would be out "at least several weeks" but said the star quarterback was still going through testing.
What does that mean precisely? The dictionary defines several as "an indefinite number more than two and fewer than many." Several weeks could mean returning in time for November games against Northwestern and Nebraska. Several weeks could also mean missing the remainder of the regular season. It's vague for a reason.
When a player as significant as Sayin is injured, it forces the selection committee to consider a few factors. Within the CFP protocol is the consideration of "the unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team's performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance."
If Ohio State's play suffers without Sayin, that can have an impact.
If Sayin is out for the season, that can have an impact.
If Ohio State loses a game without Sayin but the committee knows he has/will return, that can have an impact.
If Sayin is definitely coming back this season, Ohio State would likely get the benefit of the doubt if it lost a game starting backup quarterback Luke Fahey against USC or Oregon. Conversely, that loss would take on even greater meaning if Fahey was expected to be the starter through the remainder of the season.
The Sayin injury has a significant impact far beyond playoff seeding, obviously. Ohio State is a legitimate national championship contender, and losing Sayin for any amount of games is a tremendous blow. He's a talented player who has helped power teammate Jeremiah Smith to his status as the current Heisman Trophy frontrunner. Through seven games, Sayin is third nationally in passing yards (2,007) and touchdowns (19).
But it is a situation that bears watching if Ohio State stays the course as a top playoff contender. If the Florida State playoff situation with Jordan Travis in 2023 has taught us anything, it can be in a program's best interest not to quickly rule a player out for an extended period of time. The undefeated Seminoles famously missed the four-team playoff in 2023 after Travis suffered a season-ending injury that the committee determined impacted FSU's outlook.
When and if Sayin returns in the regular season for Ohio State has emerged as perhaps the most interesting College Football Playoff subplot as we enter the back half of the season. For the Buckeyes' sake, the sooner the better.
The Hurricanes are the new top projected team after barely holding off Florida State in a game that should have gone to a third overtime. Miami looked beatable against FSU, but the Darian Mensah to Malachi Toney connection can win the 'Canes a lot of games. If Miami can win the biggest one left (Notre Dame) and win the ACC championship, it'll be an undefeated No. 1 seed. Previous: 3
Until Julian Sayin's status is better understood, the Buckeyes remain as the No. 2 seed in the projections. Previous: 2
The stay atop our projections was short for the Bulldogs. Auburn stunned Georgia in Athens for perhaps the most surprising result of the SEC season thus far. I'm still giving Georgia the benefit of the doubt, however, coming off a hard-fought road win over Alabama. Previous: 1
Welcome to the party, BYU. The Cougars had been my first team out for weeks but jumped into the field in a big way after a win over Notre Dame. It's the kind of high-profile win that not only solidifies BYU's playoff resume but helps the entire Big 12 prove it is worthy of more than just one bid. BYU needs to avoid any letdown the next two weeks (UCF, Arizona State) ahead of what will be one of the most anticipated rivalry games against Utah in recent memory. Previous: NR
The Rebels thoroughly dominated a hot Missouri team to notch its third top-25 win of the season. Ole Miss' reward? A road trip to Austin to face a desperate Texas team already in a must-win situation. Texas will likely be without star defensive end Colin Simmons, which is surely welcome news for Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss. Previous: 9
Even with the loss, this feels like the right spot for the Hoosiers. Indiana was a foot away from beating Ohio State and moving up in these projections. Even though the Hoosiers are a notch below where they were a season ago, they still have enough talent to win out and finish 11-1. Previous: 6
The Red Raiders are sitting pretty after a blowout win over Arizona State. The good and bad news for Texas Tech down the stretch is that the schedule is weak. That should mean lots of wins, but also limits wiggle room for surprising losses. Texas Tech isn't going to get the benefit of the doubt if it loses to Cincinnati or Oklahoma State the way Georgia has with Auburn. Texas Tech, though, has the best Big 12 odds to make the playoff field at 83.5%, according to CBS Sports' forecasting. Previous: 8
The Bruins passed their first big test without quarterback Nico Iamaleava in a win over a tough Wisconsin team. UCLA may feel like a step below some of the other teams in this field, but the reality is the Bruins have a real shot to finish 12-0 or 11-1. Look at the remaining teams on its schedule: Michigan State (2-5), Nevada (2-4), Minnesota (4-2), Illinois (3-3), Michigan (4-2) and the season finale against USC (6-1). UCLA would jump to a 35 percent chance to make the CFP with a win over Michigan State. Previous: NR
The Volunteers bottled up Alabama QB Keelon Russell and secured their biggest win of the season Saturday against the Crimson Tide. Tennessee has long looked like it had a playoff-caliber defense. The big question was whether the offense could do enough to capitalize. That's still a concern with this team, but DeSean Bishop is an All-American-caliber running back, and George MacIntyre just needs to limit major mistakes for the Vols to have a shot. Tennessee can't afford a slip-up this weekend against South Carolina, a game in which the Gamecocks are a surprising 2.5-point favorite. Previous: NR
If you thought Kentucky would suffer from a winner's hangover after its win over LSU, Will Stein proved you wrong. The Wildcats forced John Mateer to throw four interceptions and escaped with a tough road win over Oklahoma. On a weekend of SEC chaos, Kentucky keeping itself out of the loss column was huge. The Wildcats should be 7-1 headed into a road game against Tennessee that will have big playoff implications. Previous: 11
A significant tumble for Notre Dame following its controversial loss to BYU. The Fighting Irish have no marquee wins and will need to win or at least split its games against Miami and SMU to make the field at 10-2. If ND can't beat Miami – this projection is based on the Irish losing – it'll set up a similar scenario to last season where ND could be one of the last teams in or one of the first teams out. The CBS Sports projection model still gives ND an 83.2 percent chance of making the playoff. Previous: 4
The Broncos remain our Group of Six pick, although undefeated James Madison is worth keeping an eye on. Previous: 12
Dec. 18-19 at higher seeds
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Indiana
No. 10 Kentucky at No. 7 Texas Tech
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 UCLA
Dec. 30 in Glendale, Ariz., Jan. 1 in Atlanta, Arlington, Texas, and Pasadena, Calif.
No. 1 Miami vs. No. 8 UCLA/No. 9 Tennessee winner
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Texas Tech/No. 10 Kentucky winner
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Indiana/No. 11 Notre Dame winner
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 5 Ole Miss/No. 12 Boise State winner
Jan. 14 in Miami and Jan. 15 in New Orleans
No. 1 Miami/ No. 8 UCLA/No. 9 Tennessee winner vs. No. 4 BYU/No. 5 Ole Miss/No. 12 Boise State winner
No. 2 Ohio State/No. 7 Texas Tech/No. 10 Kentucky winner vs. No. 3 Georgia/No. 6 Indiana/No. 11 Notre Dame winner
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