College football analyst Greg McElroy is picking No. 22 Arizona to knock off No. 13 Texas Tech in Lubbock on Saturday, a result that would hand the Red Raiders a second straight loss and reshape the Big 12 title race.

The ESPN broadcaster took the Wildcats to win 28-27 on his Always College Football podcast ahead of the noon ET kickoff. “I just think Arizona’s passing attack is playing a little bit better right now than what we’ve seen so far from the Red Raiders,” McElroy said.

Why is McElroy fading Texas Tech?

Texas Tech is coming off a 37-24 loss at Cincinnati, in which Bearcats running back Cole Tabb ran for a career-high 173 yards, and the Red Raiders committed 12 penalties. McElroy called it “bad football” and said the defense “gave up a ton of rushing yards.”

Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire offered a similar assessment after the game. “We played about as bad as we could play,” McGuire said.

Arizona beat that same Cincinnati team 34-7 on Oct. 3 and held the Bearcats to 74 rushing yards. McElroy still warned against leaning on that comparison alone. “The transitive property has never won a game ever because it isn’t a player,” he said.

Noah Fifita vs. Texas Tech’s ball hawks

Arizona has won five straight, most recently a 39-3 rout of Iowa State in which quarterback Noah Fifita completed 27 of 34 passes for 308 yards and two touchdowns. Receiver Isaiah Mizell caught a 71-yard touchdown on the game’s second play.

McElroy described an Arizona offense built on quick, on-time throws that turn into chunk gains after the catch. That style runs straight into a Texas Tech defense that lives on takeaways.

“Tech’s whole defensive identity is they’ll give up the 6-yard completion, but they’re going to wait for the throw that hangs,” McElroy said. “And Fifita doesn’t hang very many.”

Texas Tech’s best answer is running back J’Koby Williams, who McElroy said can turn one missed tackle into “a complete field-position flip.” The bigger concern is at quarterback, where sophomore Will Hammond struggled at Cincinnati. McGuire addressed Hammond’s inconsistency Monday. “And then you go into the Cincinnati game, for whatever reason, we take a step back there,” McGuire said.

What’s at stake in the Big 12 race?

Utah is the Big 12’s only unbeaten team after Texas Tech fell at Cincinnati and BYU lost in double overtime to UCF. Texas Tech, BYU and Arizona all sit at 3-1 in league play.

McGuire said the loss changed how his team views the rest of the regular season. “We’ve turned this into a five-game season to where there’s not room for error,” he said.

Texas Tech faced the same 6-1 spot last season after a loss at Arizona State, then won six straight to claim the Big 12’s automatic playoff bid.

McElroy expects the Red Raiders to force a turnover or two on Saturday and for Williams to break a couple of long runs. He believes the game will come down to how teams fare in the red zone. “The team that settles for field goals probably can’t keep pace with the one that’s finishing drives in the end zone,” McElroy said.