The race for the 2027 first overall pick continues to shape out with two names at the top of Kalshi’s NFL Draft market. Drew Metemaker and Jeremiah Smith have taken over the top of the board as the only players with a better-than-35% chance of going first overall, while the rest of the market sits below 10%.

Both Mestemaker and Smith came into the 2026 college football with roughly a 10% chance of going first overall. They have skyrocketed up the board since.

Mestemaker slightly leads at 37% vs. Smith at 36%. A $10 trade profits $15.86 on Mestemaker and $17.31 on Smith.

2027 NFL Draft First Overall pick - Kalshi

• Drew Mestemaker 37%
• Jeremiah Smith 36%
• Darian Mensah 9%
• CJ Carr 6%
• Trinidad Chambliss 5%

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Mestemaker makes his case

While Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker has quietly been becoming a household name this season, his explosive numbers are nothing new. Last season at North Texas, he led the country with 4,379 passing yards and 39 total touchdowns. The only difference is that now he’s doing it at the Power 4 level and succeeding.

So far this season, he’s totaled the second-most passing yards (2,649) in college football and tied for the most passing touchdowns (25). At that rate, he’s on pace for nearly 4,000 passing yards and 37+ touchdowns.

Nothing new for Smith

Jeremiah Smith is on pace for another elite season and career-high numbers across the board. He’s top-5 in the country in receptions (62), receiving yards (1,067), and touchdowns (13), while averaging 17.2 yards per reception.

Despite the shaky QB play with Julian Sayin out indefinitely, Smith has done enough in his freshman and sophomore seasons to make his case. His true freshman season, he totaled over 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns. He followed that up with 1,200+ yards and 12 touchdowns his sophomore year.

Coming down to fit

While some might argue that there is no wrong answer between Mestemaker and Smith, it could come down to who is picking first. Through Week 9 of the NFL season, the Los Angeles Chargers hold the No. 1 pick and are in desperate need of a receiver, which points to Jeremiah Smith.

The Tennessee Titans, with the second pick, could also be in the market for a receiver to add around former No. 1 pick Cam Ward. Rounding out the top-3 picks are the Miami Dolphins, who are in need of a QB, with Malik Willis struggling in his first full season as QB1.

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