The signs were everywhere.

The moment you landed at Austin–Bergstrom International Airport last week, you were confronted with signs that blared “The biggest weekend ever.” The focus was on the Formula 1 United States Grand Prix — which I was in town to cover — but the two undercards were listed as well: The San Antonio Spurs taking on the Houston Rockets, and the Texas Longhorns hosting the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday night.

It is rare that a Longhorns game gets the undercard billing in Austin, let alone anywhere in Texas, but that was the case last week. With the Longhorns coming off a pair of losses (first to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game and then to Florida), Texas was reeling.

And more pressure was laid at the feet of quarterback Arch Manning.

Texas eventually pulled out the win on Saturday night, knocking off the Rebels in overtime. But Manning’s performance in that game was a microcosm of where he is as a quarterback, and why his future looks cloudier than ever.

After a long Saturday at the Circuit of the Americas, where Kimi Antonelli took pole position thanks to a stunning lap at the start of Q3, I finally got back to my hotel room and turned on the game between Texas and Ole Miss.

Just in time to see this happen:

Now, you cannot really lay this play at Manning’s feet. Could you be critical and say that he needs to feel this pressure, to play faster, and get the ball out quicker? You could, but sometimes, your left tackle just gets beat on a play, and you take a shot to the back seconds before getting the ball out on the checkdown, which Manning was just about to do when he gets hit.

But that play opened the door for Ole Miss to storm back into the contest after going down big in the first half. And with the game tied in the fourth quarter, this happened:

This is a play you can certainly pin on the quarterback.

With the game knotted at 24-24, Manning uncorks a “chuck-and-duck” deep ball in the face of pressure, into tight coverage with a defender over the top of his target. It, rather predictably, gets intercepted, and suddenly the Rebels have the ball back with a chance to take the lead.

These are the mistakes that cannot happen, the throws that gift Manning’s opponents opportunities to win games. This decision was eerily reminiscent of what happened weeks earlier against Oklahoma, when Manning throws a brutal interception on a second down late in the game, giving the Sooners a chance to pull off a win late:

These are the moments that you can pin on a quarterback, the decision-making, situational awareness moments that come down to a quarterback either putting his team in position to win, or potentially costing his team a chance at victory. Manning and the Longhorns escaped against Ole Miss, but they were not as lucky against Oklahoma.

And the frustrating thing with Manning? Is that in both of those games, Manning also showed flashes of brilliance. Plays that certainly do look like what you would expect from a potential first-overall selection in the NFL Draft. Plays like this touchdown against the Rebels:

Manning scans the secondary with his eyes, stands tall in the face of pressure, and unleashes a perfect deep ball to Ryan Wingo downfield to extend the Longhorns’ lead.

Or this touchdown against the Sooners:

Here, Manning slides to his left in the face of pressure in the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, and uncorks a difficult downfield throw while moving to his left for a touchdown.

The quarterback on those last two throws might just be the top pick in the draft.

The quarterback on the two previous throws might not get invited to the Combine.

Another play to consider, this interception against Tennessee, where the Longhorns have dialed up a high-low concept, but Manning forces the deep ball into double coverage:

These are the kinds of mistakes you do not expect to see from a college quarterback in his second season as a starter, let alone someone marked as a potential No. 1 pick.

And this Arch Manning rollercoaster has certainly taken a toll on his draft stock. Mock drafts are an inexact science at best, but take note of what has happened to these pre-draft projections over the past few months, as compiled by NFL Mock Draft Database:

After spending the entire summer as the expected No. 1 pick, Manning has begun to slide. Yes, he is still in the first round, but his stock as “QB1” has been eclipsed by the rising Drew Mestemaker, and if this roller coaster ride continues, that stock could slide more.

Now, we saw this last year with Manning, where his stock took a hit after some early-season struggles, but down the stretch he was playing some of his best football and looking once more like a future NFL star. Columns like this one could be forgotten by December.

But, what if that does not happen again?

Where will that leave us, and Manning?

A fascinating discussion about Manning has taken shape over the past few weeks.

The idea that he could finish his collegiate career somewhere beyond Austin.

The idea of Manning going back to college for his final year of eligibility seemed unfathomable a few months ago, but given his play this year, and what NFL evaluators might still want to see from him, there is a growing chorus of voices adamant that Manning should look for a better offensive system and environment next year, in the college ranks.

One of those voices is Jordan Palmer, who argued on ESPN’s “Get Up” that the play-calling at Texas has hampered Manning’s play and what Manning is asked — and not asked — to do is hindering his development:

Palmer mentioned a few different schools for Manning, including Ole Miss — where his grandfather Archie and uncle Eli played — and LSU, where Lane Kiffin prowls the sidelines. Perhaps those offenses could cultivate Manning’s development.

Of course, the person currently tasked with that development is Steve Sarkisian, the Texas head coach. Sarkisian has a reputation as a brilliant play designer and play caller, but the quarterback development component is becoming a growing question mark.

Let’s not forget, Manning waited his turn behind another highly touted quarterback recruit, Quinn Ewers. At one point, Ewers was considered a future NFL star and potential first-round selection, but for a combination of reasons he slipped all the way to the seventh round of the 2025 NFL draft, the 13th quarterback selected.

So while Sarkisian deserves credit for his offensive system and the plays that he is designing, the matter of quarterback development is another story.

And some of the biggest voices in the sport are raising those concerns when it comes to Manning.

Starting with Paul Finebaum.

Finebaum even pushed back on the idea of Sarkisian as an elite playcaller:

While Finebaum softened his stance after Texas’ win, another voice in the sport — and a former coach — is raising similar question.

Again, a strong finish to the regular season could make all these questions go away. But now we have two quarterbacks in Sarkisian’s hands not developing the way people expect, and the pressure is mounting.

The flashes with Manning are there, the moments where he still looks like a potential No. 1 pick.

But the consistency is lacking, and until NFL evaluators see that, the questions will remain.

And perhaps Manning answers them at another school, next year.