The Houston Astros entered the 2026 trade deadline with hopes of making another postseason run.

They made some big decisions to continue that quest, and now, just two months later, one of those decisions could be coming back to haunt them.

Houston acquired outfielder Daulton Varsho from the Toronto Blue Jays on August 3. In return, they sent right-handed pitcher Spencer Arrighetti to a team that was desperate for pitching help.

At the time, the move made sense on both sides. For the Astros, it addressed weakness in the lineup. Varsho brought Gold Glove-caliber defense, a left-handed bat and more offensive production.

The results? Well it didn’t turn out exactly like anyone predicted.

Varsho struggled. Then he had to undergo season-ending wrist surgery and will now enter free agency after the World Series.

For that, the Astros gave up a young pitcher who will remain under team control for three more seasons.

It’s early because really we would need to examine Arrighetti’s development and success longer into the future, but right now, it looks like the Blue Jays were the clear winner here.

Astros Took a Gamble

At the time, Houston’s need for outfield help was glaring.

The Astros were rolling into the deadline with one of the least productive outfields in baseball. Varsho looked like an immediate upgrade.

He was just 30 years old and had won an American League Gold Glove in 2024. His defense offered versatility Houston appreciated.

The sacrifice was pitching depth. Arrighetti, who is just 26, wasn’t having a solid season. He had posted a 4.60 ERA with 87 strikeouts in 88 innings across 17 starts prior to the trade.

He was also dealing with a foot injury that had landed him on the injury list.

Arrighetti was still attractive though. He had major league experience as a starter and several years of team control remaining.

At the time, former Astros general manager Dana Brown pointed out Houston’s pitching depth. A portion of the justification was Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski returning from Tommy John surgery.

The Astros thought they could afford to give up Arrighetti in return for offensive help.

That theory doesn’t seem positive right now. But then, you know what they say about hindsight.

Varsho Never Delivered

Really, there’s no argument to be made that Varsho’s brief stint with the team was valuable. Quite the opposite. It was disappointing.

In 41 games he hit just .172 with a .224 on-base percentage and a .311 slugging percentage. He did add five home runs, but he certainly wasn’t the offensive weapon they thought they were getting.

As the world learned later on, these struggles may not have been entirely surprising. Varsho revealed that he had been dealing with cysts in his left wrist for months - even before Toronto traded him.

On September 29 he underwent arthroscopic surgery, which eliminated any possibility of helping Houston in the offseason.

The postseason didn’t last long. The Astros were swept in the American League Wild Card Series by the Chicago White Sox.

Now Varsho enters free agency. It’s possible that Houston received just 41 games from a player in return for a controllable starting pitcher.

A very unproductive 41 games, at that.

Arrighetti Could Make Trade Look Worse

As stated above, the true evaluation of this trade will come when Arrighetti proves what he is in Toronto.

Right now, he isn’t a proven frontline starter. Injuries have complicated his development.

There’s no guarantee he will become a reliable member of Toronto’s rotation, but the Blue Jays can afford to wait.

Arrighetti is under team control through the 2029 season.

Houston, well, they don’t have that luxury. They finished the campaign with an 81-81 record and needed rotation help. They still need pitching.

The decision to move Arrighetti could ultimately be very costly. Houston made a deal, hoping to advance itself further into the offseason. Instead, they struggled, Vasho struggled, and the postseason was short-lived.

Now the Astros are entering another offseason needing both outfield production and pitching.