The Horns are down, and so is Arch Manning’s chance of being drafted first overall in next year's NFL Draft. Kalshi’s NFL Draft market prices Arch Manning at an 8% chance of going first overall, a drastic downturn from the start of the season.

Manning came into the 2026-27 college football season with a 29% chance of going first overall. His price peaked at 31% after Texas defeated No. 1 Ohio State in Week 2. However, his price has been dropping since.

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Draft stock declining?

Manning and the Longhorns are down bad over the last two weeks. It started with the Red River Rivalry in Week 6 against unranked Oklahoma, where they lost 27-24 in a game Manning was picked off twice, including a pick- that swung momentum. It continued in Week 7 against unranked Florida, where the Gators went on the road and won 27-24 in DKR. Texas was more than a touchdown favorite in both games.

On the season, Manning has 1,295 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, and just 102 rushing yards. Across Texas’ two-game losing streak, he’s totaled 433 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and two interceptions. He has taken seven sacks across both games. Those two games also include a 61.3% completion rate against Oklahoma and a 20.6 QBR against Florida, both the second-lowest of the year.

Headed to the bench?

After the loss to Florida, reports have begun swirling that Sarkisian could bench Manning headed into Week 8. Following the loss, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian commented that Manning needs to improve.

"I think there’s no doubt about it, Arch can play better for us," Sarkisian said. "He’s our starter, but I need to see a better version of Arch Manning. I need to see a better version of a lot of guys on our offensive football team right now, but we need to see a better version of him this week."

Reporters later asked whether Sarkisian might bench Manning, to which he insisted that “everything is going to be evaluated.”

"I just felt like we didn't play good offensive football and we're not playing great offensive football right now. So everything is going to be evaluated."

Given the response from Sark, Manning is on a short leash headed into Week 8 where Texas hosts No. 7 Ole Miss.

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