Have no fear, basketball season is here.

Expectations loom large for No. 6 Michigan State this season. The Spartans have reached the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in their last two seasons, but MSU still hasn't made a Final Four since 2019, the longest drought of the Tom Izzo era.

The drive from East Lansing to Detroit is about an hour and a half, but Michigan State's journey to earn the right to finish its season in the Motor City will take about five months. It officially starts on Monday with its regular-season opener against Quinnipiac. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET; the game can be streamed on B1G+.

What the Analytics Say

A good day for MSU would look like a lopsided score and a contest that is decided before the halftime buzzer even sounds. Quinnipiac is a decent low-major program. It won regular-season titles in the MAAC (now the Metro Conference) in 2024 and 2025 with head coach Tom Pecora, but the Bobcats finished in a tie for fourth last year and were selected to finish sixth this season.

KenPom's preseason data sees this one potentially being lopsided. Michigan State ranks eighth on the popular analytics site's rankings entering Monday, while Quinnipiac is 268th. The Bobcats are one of just two teams currently ranked outside the top 200 on the Spartans' schedule, the other being Detroit Mercy (292nd) on Nov. 21. The math says MSU has a 99.6% chance of victory on Monday, with a projected final score of 90-60.

Another popular site, EvanMiya, has similar thoughts. Michigan State has a projected 99.3% chance of victory there, and the projected final score (rounded) is 92-63. It's considered the second-easiest game on MSU's schedule, next to the Detroit Mercy game (99.4% chance of victory).

Breaking Down Quinnipiac

It's always tough to get a real gauge on these mid- or low-major programs during these season openers. Quinnipiac had five players average double digits for it last season; only one player is back. One ran out of eligibility, one transferred to Syracuse as a fifth-year guy, another transferred to Grand Canyon, and another transferred to Dayton.

This type of story has been told many times before, but the best part of Quinnipiac's roster was raided by higher-caliber programs in better conferences. Even a former mid-major like Grand Canyon has made major moves with its shift to the Mountain West. The Antelopes are 44th in KenPom this year, and they're actually rostering former Spartan Tre Holloman.

Sophomore forward Keith McKnight is the only double-digit scorer back for Quinnipiac. He made the MAAC All-Rookie Team last year for averaging 11.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per contest. McKnight, who stands at 6'7", can play positions 2-4, so he'll be an interesting test for Michigan State's wings. He's probably not much of a shooter, only making four threes last season, so the focus will be on keeping McKnight out of the paint.

Lucas Sekasi is another player to know. He's a very interesting guard, standing at 6'6", who transferred in from Division II Gannon this offseason. Sekasi helped lead Gannon to the D-II title with 10.9 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, along with 13 and six in the national championship game.

What MSU Must Show

The big question for MSU right now lies in the frontcourt, more specifically, at center. It was a problem in the three exhibition games Michigan State played. Anton Bonke, the Spartans' big transfer-portal addition from Charlotte, has been playing well below expectations up to this point.

He's going to be the player with the most eyes on him on Monday, just to see what kind of role he's going to have in the first game that counts. Bonke only played nine minutes in MSU's exhibitions against UConn and Marquette combined. He was benched for the entirety of both second halves as well.

How Izzo distributes minutes will be interesting in general. The Spartans have 12 players who could crack the regular rotation this year. That will force Izzo to make a lot of decisions about lineups. Michigan State probably cannot play 12 every game, so the competition on the back end of the roster for minutes will be something to watch closely early in the season.

Overall, MSU just needs a night where it looks sharp to get its confidence back up. Quinnipiac isn't a program that will come into the Breslin Center already accepting defeat. It beat Pittsburgh and had a 10-point lead during the second half at UCF last season. Those teams aren't of Michigan State's caliber, but those facts are enough that the Bobcats deserve some respect.

Final Prediction: No. 6 Michigan State 85, Quinnipiac 59