The Baltimore Ravens are almost certain to lose Thursday night.

I’m not going to try to pretend otherwise. As best I can tell, since 2000, the Ravens have only bene an underdog of 10 points or more at home on three occasions – 2007 at the height of the Tom Brady Patriots dynasty, 2015 against the Legion of Boom Seahawks (with Jimmy Clausen at QB) and also that season against the Steelers (with Ryan Mallett at QB).

Gulp.

But they will play the game, with undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano making his first NFL start before anyone could have possibly thought imaginable, and crazy things can happen in professional sports and there is at least a case to be build that the Ravens pull ff a shocker against the second-best scoring defense in the NFL. It’s kinda flimsy, sure, but it wouldn’t be the most bizarre in the world (although I do feel compelled to acknowledge that the Ravens are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.

Perhaps this is Fagnano's only shot before journeyman Jacoby Brissett takes over. This also might be the last time the Ravens (4-4) sit at .500 for quite some time unless they break some tendencies and experiment with new concepts:

Jesse Minter Grows Up

Dude needs to acknowledge what Wink Martindale and Marvin Lewis discussed with us – trying to get this bad roster with aging players on bloated contracts to take to his zone concepts and playing all that dime coverage, without getting DBs involved nearly enough in the pass rush, ain’t working. It’s failing, miserably.

If you are going to go down, go down fighting with a chance to impact the QB. Because Trey Hendrickson hasn’t been a “closer” by a long shot (0 sacks and 12% pressure rate in fourth quarter) and this second half defense gets not nearly enough pressure and never gets its hands on the football. The Ravens have forced one second-half turnover all season, tied for worst in the NFL. Time to bring some heat and activate Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey from the slot and start attacking with Trenton Simpson from the second level and get out of the dime looks.

Trevor Lawrence will carve up the zone stuff. Check out these splits:

Lawrence vs Bitz: 44.3% Success Rate, 57.6% completions, 12% off target throws, 87.2 rating

Lawrence When Not Blitzed: 53.2 Success, 69.7% comp, 7.6% off target, 127.7 rating

At least die by the sword. Doing it Minter’s way still has the Ravens allowing the second most big plays of any NFL defense in the second half of games.

Declan Doyle Gets Real

Have Fagnano drop back five straight times in this game like you did in Buffalo. I dare you. Against a better defense with a joke defensive line. The Jags are dealing with some defensive line injuries and the only chance the Ravens have is to play keep away and bleed the clock. There has to be volume in the run game and Doyle will have to go old school for this to work.

Jumbo packages, extra offensive linemen a ton of blocking tight end Nick Vannett. If they can keep it close that way, maybe the defense actually makes a play late. They aren’t going to bully the Jags at the line of scrimmage if they do not commit extra manpower to do it. The line has far more of a fighting chance picking up three yards on the ground than doing anything downfield.

Spare me the genius talk. Let’s have a fairy competent game plan for a change and some cogent adjustments and he should probably be on the sidelines after producing three points in the second half the last three weeks. What they have been trying with Derrick Henry has been an epic fail , and they need to commit to tackle eligible quite a bit.

Special Teams Shows Up

The Ravens haven’t had any jam in the return game for a looooong time. Thursday would be a nice time to change that up. And Jake Moody gets what could be his last chance to show he can be an NFL kicker with Tyer Loop on IR. They’re going to make some long field goals in this goal with this QB situation, undoubtedly.

Deliver The First Punch

Jacksonville is feeling pretty good right now. Two weeks in London, bye week, running away with the AFC South, had to exert themselves for maybe 10 minutes in a 42-7 win over the Colts Sunday and now traveling on a short week for what everyone thinks will be a beatdown game.

Yeah, they might be a little flat and think they can just show up. Might be vulnerable to a punch in the face. We’ll see if the Ravens deliver it, but this could be a letdown spot and if it is Baltimore must seize the moment and use it to its advantage. There is no way they can play this game from behind and win.

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