It seems quite difficult for Cam Smith to surpass Wilyer Abreu, who will be the favorite to win the Gold Glove in right field for the third consecutive year.

Even if we analyzed the performance of all right fielders over the last three seasons, Abreu would still be the leading favorite, leading the Major Leagues with 22 Fielding Run Value, with the second-highest defensive value in Range (14), behind only Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks, and tied in Arm (8) with Nathan Lukes of the Toronto Blue Jays, another candidate for the award this year.

Does Cam Smith have enough potential to win a Gold Glove?

Look, the first interesting point here is Smith’s jump to the elite level in his second year in the Majors. Cam received the opportunity to own the position and played 1,079 games during his debut with the Houston Astros in 2025. This year, 1,262 innings, but what made the difference was his performance, improving from 1 OAA to 6 and from 0 FRV to 6. If we dig a little deeper, we can get into the most interesting details that drove those big changes.

Last season, Smith’s most noticeable problems as a rookie were reasonable to a certain extent, and if I had to choose some of the most frequent ones I saw, they would be his reading problems and sometimes his ability to react to the more complicated plays when he had to run backward.

There is no statistic that can define it on its own, and I understand that many of these things may remain part of our personal observation, but Smith finished with -2 Lateral toward 3B, and his biggest difficulties came when left-handed hitters were at the plate.

Baseball Savant has a very interesting metric called Outfield Catch Probability, to define the percentage of difficulty involved in each play. The difference between Abreu and Smith becomes greater as the probability percentage gets smaller. In 5 Star (0-25%), Abreu managed to make 75% of the plays, while Smith accumulated 42.9%. So, if we go back to the comparison in All Plays, Smith would look much closer, with 88.8%, while Abreu accumulated 90.8%, but you already know what the reasonable difference was that places the Red Sox outfielder at the top.

Now, when it comes to potential, Smith’s progress in just one year has been very encouraging, especially at a time when Houston needs young potential and players who can once again make its offense a potential threat.

In the entire history of the Astros, Kyle Tucker in 2022 has been the only Gold Glove winner as a right fielder, and just the third outfielder alongside center fielders Michael Bourn (2: 2009-2010) and Cesar Cedeno (4: 1973-1976).