It’s still early days in the 2026-27 Premier League season and the table is still taking shape. But what do the underlying statistics tell us? Which teams are playing better than their results might suggest, and which teams are overperforming?

That’s where good old ‘expected goals’, rattler of Proper Football Men across the country, helps us out. We’ve delved into the data to see which teams are doing best and worst in terms of the quality of chances they’ve created and faced.

After their five-goal showing against Coventry City at the weekend, Brighton & Hove Albion are the division’s top-scoring team – and that’s borne out by their underlying numbers, having created almost 2.0xG more than any other side in the division.

The Seagulls are overperforming their numbers, with only Newcastle United scoring more in comparison to their xG output, but creating bagloads of chances and being clinical with them is a pretty deadly combination.

Elsewhere, under-pressure Michael Carrick might be heartened to learn that Manchester United rank second in the Premier League for xG, while Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea are all unsurprisingly in the top half. Brentford, Leeds and newly-promoted Ipswich Town are doing alright on that front too.

At the other end, you won’t be at all shocked to learn that Arsenal have comfortably the best xG against numbers in the Premier League. The reigning champions have earned their reputation as the best defensive side in the country, which is underlined by conceding just 2.7xG against them this season – almost a third of which is accounted for by the penalty that David Raya saved in their win over Sunderland.

Manchester City aren’t far behind, and their healthy numbers on both fronts suggest that Enzo Maresca’s side could be the closest challengers to the Gunners this season. The two sides are at the top for both xG difference and expected points.

Nottingham Forest, Manchester United, Bournemouth, Liverpool and Leeds are also registering decent output when it comes to their underlying expected goals against numbers.

Taking a look at the picture as a whole, Carrick’s Manchester United are easily the biggest xG underperformers at this fledgling stage of the campaign. They rank fourth for expected goal difference and third for expected points.

If you put your faith in this data and trust that underlying numbers will eventually be reflected in results, the Red Devils will be just fine. On the other hand, if they continue to underperform on both fronts for a sustained period of time, that might suggest a more chronic issue with their finishing and goalkeeper.

On the inverse, winless and goalless Tottenham and Coventry City might expect to be doing marginally better than their results suggest – although the picture still isn’t great.

The underlying numbers are probably most concerning for Aston Villa and Newcastle United, bottom for xG difference and expected points respectively.

Here are all the relevant 2026-27 Premier League tables for xG so far, with the data taken from FotMob.

xG (Expected Goals)

1. Brighton & Hove Albion — 10.2 (+2.8)
2. Manchester United — 8.3 (-1.3)
3. Manchester City — 7.7 (+0.3)
4. Brentford — 7.3 (-0.3)
5. Arsenal — 6.8 (+1.2)
6. Liverpool — 6.7 (-0.7)
7. Leeds United — 6.5 (+0.5)
8. Chelsea — 6.5 (+3.5)
9. Ipswich Town — 6.3 (+0.7)
10. Nottingham Forest — 6.2 (-2.2)
11. Sunderland — 6.2 (-3.2)
12. Fulham — 6.1 (-2.1)
13. AFC Bournemouth — 5.9 (+0.1)
14. Crystal Palace — 5.2 (+0.8)
15. Everton — 5.1 (-0.1)
16. Coventry City — 4.2 (-4.2)
17. Newcastle United — 3.9 (+3.1)
18. Hull City — 3.7 (+1.3)
19. Tottenham Hotspur — 3.4 (-3.4)
20. Aston Villa — 3.4 (-2.4)

xGA (Expected Goals Against)

1. Arsenal — 2.7 (-1.7)
2. Manchester City — 3.7 (-1.7)
3. Nottingham Forest — 4.1 (-0.1)
4. Manchester United — 5.2 (+1.8)
5. Liverpool — 5.3 (-1.3)
6. AFC Bournemouth — 5.3 (+1.7)
7. Leeds United — 5.4 (-2.4)
8. Brentford — 5.5 (-1.5)
9. Everton — 5.5 (-2.5)
10. Sunderland — 5.8 (-0.8)
11. Hull City — 6.0 (-4.0)
12. Chelsea — 6.2 (+2.8)
13. Tottenham Hotspur — 6.6 (-1.6)
14. Ipswich Town — 6.7 (+3.3)
15. Brighton & Hove Albion — 7.0 (-2.0)
16. Fulham — 7.5 (-0.5)
17. Coventry City — 7.5 (+2.5)
18. Newcastle United — 7.5 (+0.5)
19. Aston Villa — 7.7 (-0.7)
20. Crystal Palace — 8.1 (+2.9)

xG Difference (xG – xGA)

1. Arsenal — 4.1
2. Manchester City — 4.0
3. Brighton & Hove Albion — 3.2
4. Manchester United — 3.1
5. Nottingham Forest — 2.1
6. Brentford — 1.8
7. Liverpool — 1.4
8. Leeds United — 1.1
9. AFC Bournemouth — 0.6
10. Sunderland — 0.4
11. Chelsea — 0.3
12. Ipswich Town — -0.4
13. Everton — -0.4
14. Fulham — -1.4
15. Hull City — -2.3
16. Crystal Palace — -2.9
17. Tottenham Hotspur — -3.2
18. Coventry City — -3.3
19. Newcastle United — -3.6
20. Aston Villa — -4.3

xPTS (Expected Points)

1. Arsenal — 9 (+3)
2. Manchester City — 8 (+4)
3. Manchester United — 7 (-3)
4. Brighton & Hove Albion — 7 (=)
5. Nottingham Forest — 7 (-2)
6. Liverpool — 6 (=)
7. AFC Bournemouth — 6 (-3)
8. Leeds United — 6 (+2)
9. Ipswich Town — 6 (=)
10. Brentford — 6 (=)
11. Sunderland — 6 (-2)
12. Chelsea — 6 (+1)
13. Everton — 5 (+1)
14. Fulham — 4 (-3)
15. Tottenham Hotspur — 4 (-2)
16. Hull City — 4 (+4)
17. Crystal Palace — 4 (-1)
18. Aston Villa — 4 (-3)
19. Coventry City — 3 (-3)
20. Newcastle United — 3 (+2)