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Yassir Zabiri has scored seven goals in eight Liga appearances for Racing Santander, despite expected-goals data suggesting he should have found the net only 3.3 times.
The 21-year-old Morocco international has therefore outperformed his expected total by 3.7 goals, almost doubling the number predicted by the quality of the chances he has received. His form marks a striking turnaround after a difficult spell at Rennes, with his loan move to Racing Santander already proving a significant career boost.
Zabiri had identified Spanish football as a better match for his qualities, and his start to the season has supported that view. His direct approach and willingness to attack space have made him one of the league’s most effective finishers.
Only two players in the Spanish championship have produced a greater return compared with their expected goals tally, one of them being Raphinha. Zabiri’s figure is also ahead of those recorded by Lamine Yamal (+2.00) and Kylian Mbappe (+0.10).
His seven goals have placed him third in the Liga scoring standings. None has come from the penalty spot, while five were scored with a first-time finish, highlighting his anticipation, positioning and ability to shoot before defenders can close him down.
A naturally left-footed player, Zabiri has also scored twice with his right foot. He first made a major impression on 28 August, when he completed a hat-trick in less than 21 minutes. That performance took him close to a record associated with Samuel Eto’o and offered an early indication of what might follow.
Since then, the striker has continued to score regularly, a level of consistency few would have expected after his underwhelming experience in France. The more open, space-focused nature of Spanish football appears to have suited him.
There are, however, reasons for caution. Maintaining such a large gap between goals scored and expected goals over a long period will be difficult. Zabiri still needs to improve his involvement in build-up play, his discipline he has already collected four bookings and his influence when chances are limited. Opponents are also likely to pay closer attention to his runs and left foot.
His progress has not gone unnoticed in Morocco. Mustapha Hadji, who says he regularly follows Zabiri’s performances, believes the striker could become “one of the great Moroccan forwards” if he maintains the same level of commitment to his work.
Competition for places in the Morocco squad remains strong, and a few productive weeks are not enough to change the established order. But Zabiri, who has already been introduced to the Lions of the Atlas after winning the World Cup U20, is beginning to build a serious case for a place in the senior team despite a quiet latest international gathering.