We are halfway through the group phase of the Champions League, and Barcelona and PSG continue to pull away from the field. Kalshi’s Champions League market puts Barcelona at the top at 21%, with PSG just behind at 19%. These are the only two squads with a higher than 15% chance to win.

PSG originally opened as the preseason favorites. Barcelona sat firmly behind them until taking over the top spot in mid-August and has held on to the top spot since. A $10 trade profits $35.09 on Barcelona and $39.78 on PSG.

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UEFA Champions League winner - Kalshi

• Barcelona 21%
• PSG 19%
• Real Madrid 15%
• Arsenal 13%
• Bayern Munich 13%

Can Barcelona break the drought?

It’s been 11 years since Barcelona last won the Champions League and they are gearing up for a strong run this time around. Through the first half of the league phase, Barca is 3-0-1 with a +8 goal differential, scoring 14 and conceding only six. They’ve scored 3+ goals in each of their victories and won all of them by more than three goals as well.

They’ve been aggressive on offense, with Raphinha and Lamine Yamal combining for seven goals. In all three of their wins so far, they’ve totaled 8+ shots on goal. Their only loss came against PSG, 4-2.

PSG looking for a three-peat

PSG has looked nearly unstoppable through the league phase at 4-0-0. They lead the field with a +15 scoring margin at 20 goals while conceding just five. They’ve scored 4+ goals in every match, including two 6-goal outings against Slovan Bratislava and Villarreal.

The attack has been balanced, with Fabian Ruiz, Ferran Torres, Desire Doue, and Ousmane Dembele all scoring 3+ goals. They have generated 10+ shots on goal in every match, including 14 in the win against Barcelona, where they also conceded slightly on time of possession at 47%.

The road ahead

Four games remain in the league phase before the knockout round begins in February. Barcelona next plays Sabah FK on November 25, with Manchester City, Sporting, and Como to follow. PSG plays the same day against AS Roma, with Aston Villa, Como, and Galatasaray to follow 

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