Eight weeks are in the books, which means we’ve reached the midpoint of the 2026 NFL regular season and finally have enough information to separate more of the contenders from the teams merely hanging around.

Jacob Infante and I went through the current playoff picture using PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, which lets you work through the remaining schedule or simulate the season based on PFN’s analytical models.

The AFC already looks much more settled than the NFC. The biggest remaining questions involve the crowded AFC North, the aftermath of Lamar Jackson’s latest injury, four winning teams in the NFC North, and whether the Rams or Seahawks can force their way into a wild-card spot.

The AFC Playoff Field Already Looks Relatively Clear

Buffalo enters Week 9 at 6-1 and in control of the AFC East. Jacksonville leads the AFC South at 5-2, while Denver and Kansas City have separated themselves from the rest of the AFC West at 6-2 and 5-2.

The AFC North is considerably more crowded. Pittsburgh is 6-2, Cincinnati is 5-2, Cleveland is 5-3, and Baltimore is 4-4.

Despite those four winning or .500 records, I don’t think there are many realistic candidates outside the current group of contenders.

My expectation is that Buffalo gets in, Jacksonville gets in, the AFC West sends Denver and Kansas City, and the AFC North sends its division champion plus another team. New England is also sitting at 5-3 and in good position to remain in the wild-card race.

That essentially leaves Cleveland as the team that could disrupt what otherwise looks like a fairly stable seven-team field.

Infante is skeptical that the Browns have enough offensively to keep pace with the teams they’re competing against. Cleveland has managed to bank five wins, but its minus-34 point differential stands out compared with most of the conference’s other contenders.

That’s the core of the issue. The Browns don’t need to apologize for winning games, but when the competition for a wild card includes quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, and Joe Burrow, Cleveland needs its offense to hold up for another two months.

Infante called the Texans another theoretical possibility, but Houston is already 2-5. That’s a significant amount of ground to make up when several teams ahead of them have already reached five or six wins.

Lamar Jackson’s Injury Changes the Ravens’ Entire Outlook

I don’t think Baltimore belongs in the serious playoff conversation anymore.

Lamar Jackson returned against Buffalo after missing three games with an ankle injury and hurt his right thumb on his first offensive snap. He needs surgery and will be placed on injured reserve, guaranteeing at least another four-game absence. Ravens head coach Jesse Minter has also acknowledged that the injury could potentially end Jackson’s season.

Then Tyler Huntley injured his toe in the same game.

Baltimore is now trying to figure out how to get through Thursday night’s game against Jacksonville with Joe Fagnano, Huntley if he can recover quickly enough, or another quarterback who may not currently be on the roster.

The Ravens should be exploring the trade market.

I brought up Jacoby Brissett as the type of veteran who would at least give Baltimore a functional passing game if Arizona is willing to move him. The Cardinals recently dropped Brissett on the depth chart, and with Gardner Minshew ahead of him and Carson Beck waiting behind, there isn’t much long-term reason for Arizona to keep all of those quarterbacks.

That doesn’t mean Brissett suddenly restores Baltimore’s Super Bowl ceiling. It means the Ravens would at least have a veteran capable of completing passes and allowing the rest of the offense to function.

If they stay with Fagnano or another inexperienced option, the outlook becomes far worse.

Infante agreed that the Jackson injury effectively takes Baltimore out of the AFC North discussion. A team that entered the season with legitimate Super Bowl expectations is now in last place in its division and facing an extended stretch without the player who drives its offense.

Can the NFC North Send 3 Teams to the Playoffs?

The NFC is much more complicated.

Minnesota is 6-1, Chicago is 6-2, Detroit is 5-2, and Green Bay is 5-3. Every NFC North team is at least two games over .500 entering Week 9.

Could all four make the playoffs?

Probably not.

Infante expects three of them to get in. He feels particularly confident about Minnesota and Chicago, leaving Detroit and Green Bay more exposed to competition from the NFC West.

I agree that three teams is the more likely outcome.

The Vikings are the team I could most easily imagine slipping, but they’ve already banked six wins and their defense is simply too good for me to expect a complete collapse. Minnesota has allowed only 93 points through seven games.

Quarterback is the variable.

Kyler Murray hasn’t played at the level Minnesota expected, but the Vikings don’t need him to carry them. They need competent quarterback play that doesn’t undermine a defense capable of winning games by itself.

If Murray can’t provide that, Carson Wentz has already shown he can keep the offense afloat.

I compared the basic philosophy to those old Baltimore teams that didn’t ask the quarterback to be the reason they won. Murray is obviously far more talented than a player such as Trent Dilfer was, and Minnesota’s defense isn’t the 2000 Ravens, but the larger point remains: The Vikings don’t need elite quarterback production every Sunday.

They need someone who doesn’t give games away.

The Bears Have Proven They’re a Legitimate Contender

I’m not expecting Chicago to be the NFC North team that drops out.

The Bears just went into Seattle and won 34-17 on Monday night, improving to 6-2. That followed another significant prime-time win the previous week.

Chicago has shown it can score against good defenses and win away from home. Caleb Williams has given the offense the level of quarterback play it needs, and the Bears have now built enough of a cushion that a normal second-half regression wouldn’t necessarily knock them out.

Unless Williams gets hurt, I have a hard time imagining Chicago completely falling apart from here.

The more difficult choice is between Detroit and Green Bay.

Both teams are good enough to make the playoffs. Both also have to deal with several remaining division games against opponents that are already in the postseason race themselves.

That internal competition is what could eventually open a wild-card path for somebody from the NFC West.

One of the Rams or Seahawks Could Squeeze Into the Field

Seattle and Los Angeles are both 4-4, yet neither feels like a team we should dismiss.

That’s why I don’t believe the NFC North is going to send all four teams to the postseason.

Before the season, the Rams and Seahawks were viewed as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The first half hasn’t gone smoothly for either, but they still have talented rosters and coaching staffs capable of producing a strong second half.

One of them is likely going to make a push.

That could create an unfortunate situation where a 10-win team from the NFC North or West misses the playoffs while a much weaker division champion receives an automatic berth.

The NFC South is the obvious source of that possibility.

The NFC South Is Completely Open

Carolina enters Week 9 at 3-4. Tampa Bay and Atlanta are 3-5, while New Orleans sits at 2-5.

I have no idea which one of those teams is going to win the division.

The Panthers had the clearest opportunity to create separation and have instead lost two straight games. Bryce Young has also looked much more like the quarterback who previously struggled than the version who appeared to be breaking out earlier in the season.

Tampa Bay has now won two straight behind one of the better defenses in football, even though its offense has gone to extremes in trying to survive games.

Atlanta remains inconsistent, and New Orleans is only one game behind Carolina in the win column despite being in last place.

Infante made the same point: None of these teams would normally look like an obvious playoff club, but somebody has to win the division.

That team could easily finish with fewer victories than whichever NFC North or NFC West contender winds up on the wrong side of the wild-card cut line.

Can the Cowboys Still Catch the Giants?

The NFC East isn’t quite as chaotic, but it isn’t settled either.

The Giants lead the division at 4-2-1. Dallas is 3-5, while Philadelphia has already fallen to 2-6.

I still have trouble completely writing off the Cowboys because there is too much talent on that roster for them to look as bad as they have.

The problem is that Dallas keeps following every promising performance with another loss that makes no sense.

Just when it looks like the Cowboys might stabilize, they lose a game they should win. The defense has remained a major issue, and this isn’t a team that has consistently demonstrated it can survive when Dak Prescott isn’t playing at a high level.

The Giants aren’t exactly running away with the division, which leaves the door open. I just don’t trust Dallas enough to assume it will take advantage.

What Did PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor Simulate?

After working through the current standings, Infante ran the remainder of the season through PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor.

The result produced several surprises.

Kansas City finished as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, while Minnesota earned the top seed in the NFC.

The most surprising projection was Arizona.

The Cardinals entered the simulation at 3-5 but finished 9-8 and made their way into the postseason picture. That would require a 6-3 closing stretch from a team that has already changed quarterbacks and has been outscored by more than 60 points.

I have a difficult time seeing it.

The simulation also had Dallas climbing into first place in the NFC East and Carolina emerging from the NFC South.

In the AFC, Cleveland remained alive and finished 11-6, while New England fell to 9-8 and out of the postseason.

Baltimore somehow reached 10-7 but still missed the playoffs.

That Ravens result is the one I would largely disregard because of the timing of Jackson’s injury.

The model is using everything Baltimore did over the first eight weeks to project what comes next. That’s normally exactly what you want at this stage of a season. The problem is that the past data contains games with Jackson that are no longer representative of the roster Baltimore is going to put on the field.

We don’t yet have a meaningful sample of this Ravens team without Jackson, with Huntley injured, and with an uncertain quarterback situation behind them.

That’s why the 10-7 projection looks much more optimistic than the actual circumstances.

The Simulator Had Broncos-Bears in the Super Bowl

Infante took the experiment one step further and simulated the postseason.

PFN’s predictor produced a Denver Broncos-Chicago Bears Super Bowl, with Denver winning the championship.

Infante was understandably happy to see his Bears get that far, even if the simulated ending wasn’t quite what he wanted.

I have a much harder time buying the Denver side.

The Broncos are 6-2 and have repeatedly found ways to win. Sean Payton deserves credit for that, and the defense gives them a foundation capable of carrying a team through ugly games.

My concern is still Bo Nix.

Denver has won despite not getting the same quarterback it had during last year’s run to the AFC Championship Game. Nix has played better recently, but I’ve seen too much checking the ball down and too little consistent downfield production to simply assume the old version is coming back.

We saw Drake Maye struggle early in the year and then quickly return to looking like Drake Maye. We are deeper into the season with Nix, and the turnaround hasn’t been nearly as convincing.

That’s why I would be surprised if Denver won more than one playoff game unless its quarterback play improves substantially.

Infante’s counter is fair. Denver has a strong defense, an accomplished coach, and a knack for surviving games when the offense isn’t at its best. If Nix does find another gear over the second half, the Broncos become a different type of postseason threat.

That’s also the point of running the simulator.

The NFL rarely plays out exactly the way the standings suggest it should in early November. The AFC already looks fairly defined, but the NFC has enough congestion in the North and West, plus enough uncertainty in the East and South, to produce a very different bracket by January.